Study: Buy RAYMOND when ADX is Trending and there is Golden Cross (50 DMA > 200 DMA)

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy RAYMOND when ADX is Trending and there is Golden Cross (50 DMA > 200 DMA)" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy RAYMOND at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
1-19.7862751750.336866.42-5260.85-9151.110.331-0.00012-2.46
215450.4844508610.820095.28-4748.2-7706.21.811.810.0461931.3
3-14407.89826259136.3911531.21-5446.78-15412.41.680.56-0.045-1800.99
4-4223.46844507913.918088.18-8969.77-24262.490.880.88-0.0091-527.93
5-6256.0683537.58879.5312234.64-6578.93-19385.911.350.81-0.017-782.01
6-8139.5383537.510611.3814311.59-7994.73-21854.31.330.8-0.019-1017.44
7-10328.96844505172.447622.35-7754.68-23239.010.670.67-0.028-1291.12
8-2072.2883537.58337.3118613.27-5416.84-17579.771.540.92-0.0056-259.03
930805.3785362.59960.0521727.85-6331.63-12823.61.572.620.0693850.67
1018431.8485362.58851.4818260.87-8608.51-9993.981.031.710.0452303.98
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 3 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.
RAYMOND Performance, X=9, Profit Factor:2.62

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2016119 May 2016 (0.14%)
2012115 Nov 2012 (10.86%)
2009112 Jun 2009 (-6.41%)
2007113 Nov 2007 (2.5%)
2003111 Jun 2003 (-0.59%)
2002110 Jan 2002 (10.71%)
2000130 Jun 2000 (-2.5%)
1998110 Apr 1998 (0.69%)

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
atrnil26.6241186.798445019095.4723353.01-8798.77-13993.462.172.170.0735148.35
atrtrail34.8825235.538445012554.4627404.55-6245.58-13993.462.012.010.0553154.44
atrtrail24.3824260.628445012310.7318544.03-6245.58-13993.461.971.970.0573032.58
atrnil310.2542289.6583537.528918.9135029.52-8893.42-13993.463.251.950.0585286.21
atrtrail-15.1211833.58844509203.9714002.61-6245.58-13993.461.471.470.0351479.2

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 2.17. Number of signals (total trades) generated is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 50%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 2.57%, which is very good. Sharpe Ratio is 0.073, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
RAYMOND Performance, Profit Factor:2.17

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2016119 May 2016 (-2.94%)
2012115 Nov 2012 (-2.39%)
2009112 Jun 2009 (-7.0%)
2007113 Nov 2007 (11.68%)
2003111 Jun 2003 (8.11%)
2002110 Jan 2002 (9.13%)
2000130 Jun 2000 (-5.27%)
1998110 Apr 1998 (9.27%)



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