Study: Sell RELIANCE when near 200 SMA and below 200 SMA

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Sell RELIANCE when near 200 SMA and below 200 SMA" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: sell RELIANCE at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. buy after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
123893.9274403454.053019.489507.83-2849.56-16048.391.061.250.016322.89
241989.6474403454.054562.8718934.85-4133.09-18790.321.11.30.02567.43
397984.9174452960.815517.4637189.17-5182.79-16854.841.061.650.0361324.12
425425.1274383651.356442.3725349.84-6094.02-34274.191.061.120.008343.58
5-46188.97743737506504.6617799.26-7753.01-37419.350.840.84-0.014-624.18
6-54763.374344045.957111.9621524.21-7414.25-42580.650.960.82-0.016-740.04
7-62051.6874334144.598154.1223231.85-8076.53-45322.581.010.81-0.016-838.54
8-71518.974353947.37817.2526557.38-8849.3-48790.320.880.79-0.018-966.47
9-14721774314341.899328.9228618.27-10149.15-68709.680.920.66-0.03-1989.42
10-13175574314341.899720.9627592.17-10072.22-56451.610.970.7-0.028-1780.48
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 1 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
200trail32.4450467.42108387035.196289.1111703.14-2693.12-3956.632.341.270.02467.29
200nil22.0835583.21106396736.795819.367802.09-2856.3-3956.632.041.190.016335.69
200trail21.9730764.33108406837.045395.67802.09-2721.47-3956.631.981.170.014284.85
atrtrail24.2834152.0486384844.196908.2517467.35-4757.53-10864.351.451.150.012397.12
200nil32.7413949.23106287826.428526.0311703.14-2881.79-3956.632.961.060.0052131.6
atrtrail34.955699.286384844.196159.4922595.62-4757.53-10864.351.291.020.00266.27
atrtrail-15.25-12781.3485374843.535784.4718143.7-4725.14-10864.351.220.94-0.0047-150.37
200trail-13.31-24110.56105347132.384770.719030.82-2624.14-3956.631.820.87-0.011-229.62
atrnil25.79-51163.6977245331.1711421.9917467.35-6137.57-10887.981.860.84-0.016-664.46
atrnil37.89-20716171106114.0816468.5422595.62-6095.84-10887.982.70.44-0.073-2917.76

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 1.27. Strategy is showing mildly bearish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 35.19%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 0.23%, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.02, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
RELIANCE Performance, Profit Factor:1.27

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019129 Aug 2019 (3.54%)
2017223 Jan 2017 (-1.57%), 25 Jan 2017 (-1.42%)
2016918 Feb 2016 (-1.67%), 25 Feb 2016 (-1.41%), 31 May 2016 (-0.93%), 29 Jun 2016 (-1.21%), 04 Nov 2016 (5.01%), 09 Nov 2016 (-1.66%), 10 Nov 2016 (3.25%), 22 Nov 2016 (-0.44%), 06 Dec 2016 (-1.24%)
2015404 Jun 2015 (1.44%), 20 Aug 2015 (3.75%), 06 Oct 2015 (-1.58%), 14 Oct 2015 (-1.06%)
2014607 Jan 2014 (-1.39%), 27 Jan 2014 (5.69%), 30 Sep 2014 (0.15%), 23 Oct 2014 (0.13%), 29 Oct 2014 (-1.56%), 01 Dec 2014 (5.59%)
20131016 Apr 2013 (1.48%), 10 May 2013 (-1.24%), 22 May 2013 (3.84%), 14 Jun 2013 (-1.96%), 16 Aug 2013 (5.28%), 03 Sep 2013 (-1.43%), 26 Sep 2013 (-1.26%), 27 Sep 2013 (0.2%), 26 Nov 2013 (-1.14%), 17 Dec 2013 (-1.39%)
2012601 Feb 2012 (-1.79%), 06 Feb 2012 (-1.25%), 24 Feb 2012 (5.17%), 29 Feb 2012 (4.05%), 14 Mar 2012 (4.08%), 20 Nov 2012 (-1.3%)
2011710 Jan 2011 (-1.37%), 12 Jan 2011 (4.7%), 23 Mar 2011 (-1.36%), 11 Apr 2011 (-1.98%), 18 Apr 2011 (-1.5%), 25 Apr 2011 (4.19%), 28 Oct 2011 (4.54%)
20101002 Feb 2010 (-1.09%), 17 Feb 2010 (3.84%), 15 Mar 2010 (-1.66%), 29 Apr 2010 (0.15%), 07 May 2010 (-1.81%), 28 May 2010 (0.52%), 21 Sep 2010 (3.64%), 16 Nov 2010 (-1.45%), 18 Nov 2010 (3.63%), 07 Dec 2010 (4.25%)
2008603 Mar 2008 (-1.03%), 05 Mar 2008 (5.53%), 14 Mar 2008 (3.79%), 01 Apr 2008 (-1.49%), 02 Apr 2008 (-1.71%), 27 May 2008 (-1.15%)
2006317 Feb 2006 (-1.6%), 21 Feb 2006 (-1.16%), 23 Feb 2006 (-1.06%)
2005419 Apr 2005 (-1.41%), 17 May 2005 (-1.01%), 19 May 2005 (-1.39%), 30 May 2005 (-1.16%)
2004512 May 2004 (-1.26%), 21 Sep 2004 (1.02%), 25 Nov 2004 (-1.25%), 10 Dec 2004 (-1.46%), 22 Dec 2004 (-1.64%)
2003430 Jan 2003 (-1.3%), 05 May 2003 (3.71%), 19 May 2003 (-1.91%), 23 May 2003 (-1.67%)
20021507 Jan 2002 (-1.04%), 08 Jan 2002 (-1.62%), 23 Jan 2002 (-1.11%), 28 Jan 2002 (-1.19%), 30 Jan 2002 (-1.28%), 08 Feb 2002 (-1.84%), 14 Feb 2002 (-1.46%), 06 Mar 2002 (-1.84%), 08 Mar 2002 (1.81%), 18 Mar 2002 (3.03%), 22 Mar 2002 (-0.57%), 01 Apr 2002 (-1.43%), 09 Apr 2002 (1.61%), 11 Jun 2002 (0.82%), 18 Nov 2002 (-1.52%)
2001209 May 2001 (-1.13%), 15 Jun 2001 (3.1%)
1999307 Apr 1999 (-1.08%), 08 Apr 1999 (5.85%), 28 Apr 1999 (-1.14%)
1998202 Mar 1998 (-1.54%), 27 May 1998 (3.01%)
1997205 Dec 1997 (-1.14%), 23 Dec 1997 (-0.2%)
1996522 Apr 1996 (-1.42%), 27 May 1996 (1.1%), 30 May 1996 (-1.29%), 23 Oct 1996 (-1.02%), 26 Dec 1996 (-1.56%)
1995222 Nov 1995 (3.0%), 23 Nov 1995 (-1.0%)



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