Study: Sell RELIANCE when below 200 SMA and near 50 SMA and below 50 SMA and RSI is below 50

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Sell RELIANCE when below 200 SMA and near 50 SMA and below 50 SMA and RSI is below 50" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: sell RELIANCE at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. buy after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
124284.93251312524180.849268.29-2505.49-5589.011.671.810.05971.4
29292.6251213484173.3411080-3137.5-6199.041.331.230.017371.7
3-27432.2525916365141.3811158.54-4606.54-9420.541.120.63-0.04-1097.29
4-30345.64251015406536.8212644.66-6380.92-123241.020.68-0.033-1213.83
5-37672.25251015406357.7817533.6-6750-23211.540.940.63-0.037-1506.89
6-48022.34251015407329.9118435.91-8088.09-27247.340.910.6-0.039-1920.89
7-88266.725916368348.2924363.5-10212.58-26118.680.820.46-0.061-3530.67
8-72271.53251114448039.5621517.03-11479.05-26871.120.70.55-0.05-2890.86
9-38050.05251312527750.7816482.95-11567.51-25936.270.670.73-0.027-1522
10-63453.81251114449782.617221.3-12218.74-30857.140.80.63-0.039-2538.15

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 1 trading days. Profit factor is 1.81. Strategy is showing mildly bearish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 52%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 0.49%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.05, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
50trail32.4447946.4932141843.757313.6311955.41-3024.68-3965.782.421.880.0541498.33
nilnil-1124284.93251312524180.849268.29-2505.49-5589.011.671.810.05971.4
50trail-13.5942874.4532131940.627678.9920867.66-2997.5-3965.782.561.750.041339.83
50trail21.8239865.2733151845.456400.727970.28-3119.2-3965.782.051.710.0511208.04
50nil21.8236782.6633151845.456400.727970.28-3290.46-3989.721.951.620.0461114.63
50nil32.727164.3530102033.339311.1611955.41-3297.36-3989.722.821.410.03905.48
atrtrail24.2916890.6931102132.261046519686.36-4179.01-8939.32.51.190.014544.86
atrtrail34.5812017.2331102132.269977.6523805.07-4179.01-8939.32.391.140.0097387.65
atrtrail-14.97832.5431102132.268859.1816079.95-4179.01-8939.32.121.010.0007626.86
atrnil25.77-5207.712681830.7713604.3619686.36-6335.7-13568.542.150.95-0.0042-200.3
atrnil36.85-11794.592662023.0819583.1924425.24-6464.69-13568.543.030.91-0.008-453.64

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 1.88. Strategy is showing mildly bearish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 43.75%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 0.75%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.054, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
RELIANCE Performance, Profit Factor:1.88

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019229 Aug 2019 (1.97%), 11 Sep 2019 (4.48%)
2016129 Jun 2016 (-1.79%)
2015309 Feb 2015 (3.76%), 28 Apr 2015 (-1.08%), 11 Jun 2015 (-1.68%)
2014101 Dec 2014 (4.91%)
2013413 May 2013 (-1.6%), 05 Jun 2013 (3.09%), 20 Jun 2013 (-0.77%), 25 Jun 2013 (-1.42%)
2012222 Jun 2012 (-1.64%), 26 Jul 2012 (-1.98%)
2010130 Sep 2010 (-1.41%)
2009225 Feb 2009 (-1.25%), 27 Feb 2009 (3.44%)
2008529 May 2008 (5.98%), 27 Aug 2008 (-1.0%), 04 Sep 2008 (1.22%), 09 Sep 2008 (5.62%), 24 Dec 2008 (-1.63%)
2004123 Aug 2004 (-1.7%)
2002207 Feb 2002 (-1.5%), 01 Oct 2002 (5.07%)
1999205 Feb 1999 (0.81%), 10 Feb 1999 (1.01%)
1998309 Jan 1998 (5.32%), 19 Jan 1998 (-1.81%), 04 Dec 1998 (-1.72%)
1996322 Mar 1996 (-1.69%), 27 Aug 1996 (-1.55%), 10 Sep 1996 (4.51%)



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