Study: Sell SRF when near 200 SMA and below 200 SMA and below 50 SMA and below 20 SMA

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Sell SRF when near 200 SMA and below 200 SMA and below 50 SMA and below 20 SMA" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: sell SRF at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. buy after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
111445.681064604060.211111.11-3228.88-8602.861.261.890.0481144.57
250678.931082807734.2722685.19-5597.61-8075.851.385.530.135067.89
354850.871082808379.8819200.61-6094.09-9298.681.385.50.135485.09
460554.9910646013762.6628703.7-5505.24-9946.052.53.750.16055.5
567646.1910555016292.1526388.89-2762.91-5721.765.95.90.126764.62
681983.310646015575.4333796.3-2867.32-4576.625.438.150.148198.33
771815.210555018100.6929166.67-3737.65-11409.14.844.840.127181.52
866362.8510646015360.5236574.07-6450.07-10508.382.383.570.0966636.28
964569.110646014899.124537.04-6206.38-9007.182.43.60.116456.91
1066627.8810646015724.7229331.31-6930.11-8690.712.273.40.16662.79

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 6 trading days. Profit factor is 8.15. Strategy is very good and impressively bearish. Percentage of profitable trades is 60%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 4.1%, which is very good.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades. This chart is important and informative as it shows the performance of strategy over time.
SRF Performance, X=6, Profit Factor:8.15

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2018119 Jun 2018 (10.58%)
2017215 Feb 2017 (-1.5%), 02 Jun 2017 (0.47%)
2016119 May 2016 (-2.29%)
2011211 Mar 2011 (-1.72%), 10 May 2011 (4.3%)
2008111 Sep 2008 (10.22%)
2003117 Feb 2003 (-0.22%)
2001119 Dec 2001 (4.26%)
1998123 Mar 1998 (16.9%)

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
nilnil-1681983.310646015575.4333796.3-2867.32-4576.625.438.150.148198.33
atrtrail-17.3347195.08125741.6715525.5941455.1-4347.55-9730.083.572.550.0593932.92
atrtrail35.6738709.7125741.6713828.5223091.96-4347.55-9730.083.182.270.0613225.81
atrnil38.1763743.09125741.6723012.1833571.07-7331.11-9730.083.142.240.075311.92
200trail-14.2127216.29146842.868390.3818747.36-2890.75-3833.72.92.180.0531944.02
200nil32.5726981.54146842.868656.6711295.39-3119.81-3833.72.772.080.0671927.25
200trail32.2120635.36146842.867293.5611295.39-2890.75-3833.72.521.890.0541473.95
atrtrail25.0824177.88125741.6710922.1515394.64-4347.55-9730.082.511.790.0482014.82
atrnil26.1725389.46125741.6715341.4522380.72-7331.11-9730.082.091.490.0372115.79
200nil22.299668.2146842.865771.117530.26-3119.81-3833.71.851.390.032690.59
200trail21.936104.63146842.864871.777530.26-2890.75-3833.71.691.260.021436.04

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 8.15. Strategy is very good and impressively bearish. Percentage of profitable trades is 60%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 4.1%, which is very good.
Performance of strategy chart over time is same as above.

View performance of other stocks for this trading system.

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