Study: Sell SRTRANSFIN when RSI is below 50 and there is Dead Cross (50 DMA < 200 DMA)

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Sell SRTRANSFIN when RSI is below 50 and there is Dead Cross (50 DMA < 200 DMA)" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: sell SRTRANSFIN at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. buy after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
1-1068321239252500.483300.97-12703.77-93333.330.20.066-0.074-8902.71
2-70939.86124833.336886.817647.06-12310.88-500000.560.28-0.08-5911.65
3-63971.47124833.3316128.9254117.65-16060.89-5000010.5-0.048-5330.96
4-73151.74125741.6713667.9844705.88-20213.09-500000.680.48-0.057-6095.98
5-72046.44124833.3316148.851764.71-17080.2-33403.390.950.47-0.058-6003.87
6-122602125741.6713724.151764.71-27317.44-66666.670.50.36-0.078-10216.8
7-46283.67124833.3317279.747058.82-14425.31-29875.961.20.6-0.042-3856.97
8-95814.72125741.6719457.2751764.71-27585.87-86666.670.710.5-0.052-7984.56
9-22815.6125741.6719758.6241176.47-17372.67-36164.341.140.81-0.018-1901.3
10-5414.91125741.6722127.647058.82-16578.99-34705.571.330.95-0.0041-451.24
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 1 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
atrtrail36.7544146.42124833.3333201.7948156.55-11082.59-38053.8631.50.0343678.87
atrtrail-17.1716661.9124833.3326330.6637153.73-11082.59-38053.862.381.190.0151388.49
atrtrail25.759371.13124833.3324507.9632104.37-11082.59-38053.862.211.110.0087780.93
atrnil38.17-2369.9212392537301.6148156.55-12697.2-38053.862.940.98-0.0018-197.49
atrnil26.33-4528.58124833.3324507.9632104.37-12820.06-38053.861.910.96-0.0041-377.38

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 1.5. Strategy is showing mildly bearish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 33.33%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 1.84%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.034, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
SRTRANSFIN Performance, Profit Factor:1.5

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019114 May 2019 (-2.31%)
2018123 Jul 2018 (-4.95%)
2016125 Nov 2016 (10.45%)
2015121 May 2015 (-1.61%)
2013105 Aug 2013 (13.52%)
2012123 May 2012 (-3.66%)
2011218 Mar 2011 (-3.47%), 16 May 2011 (-5.8%)
2008130 Jun 2008 (-3.51%)
2006105 Jul 2006 (18.35%)
2000131 May 2000 (-19.03%)
1998124 Sep 1998 (24.08%)



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