Study: Sell STAR when near 200 SMA and below 200 SMA and ADX is Trending

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Sell STAR when near 200 SMA and below 200 SMA and ADX is Trending" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: sell STAR at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. buy after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
1803.42127558.331997.215588.1-2635.41-5655.140.761.060.005366.95
2-14433.771266502340.915029.99-4746.54-7971.320.490.49-0.071-1202.81
3-19889.37124833.337561.8510448.81-6267.1-13794.911.210.6-0.055-1657.45
4-6154.97125741.6711076.9524190.28-8791.39-21119.751.260.9-0.01-512.91
5-3805.45124833.3315309.5831379.52-8130.47-19388.761.880.94-0.0055-317.12
69179.21127558.338975.5326299.9-10729.9-14426.550.841.170.015764.93
722851.0412665012411.0825025.85-8602.57-16209.461.441.440.0371904.25
819097.67127558.3311681.2422088.96-12534.2-23847.240.931.30.0271591.47
9138903128466.6724411.52113258-14097.37-23977.291.733.460.08111575.22
1014271012937522416.59111332-19679.83-26769.671.143.420.08411892.48
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 2 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.
STAR Performance, X=9, Profit Factor:3.46

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2017131 Jul 2017 (17.39%)
2016211 Jan 2016 (6.11%), 04 Nov 2016 (2.25%)
2015108 Sep 2015 (-11.99%)
2014209 Jun 2014 (3.87%), 23 Jun 2014 (-10.87%)
2013106 Dec 2013 (56.63%)
2008228 Aug 2008 (0.66%), 22 Sep 2008 (5.33%)
2007227 Jun 2007 (-0.08%), 11 Jul 2007 (5.41%)
2006113 Sep 2006 (-5.26%)

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
atrnil35.5743937.29145935.7126191.8337347.83-9669.1-12393.72.711.50.0423138.38
200trail31.633752.741951426.328355.3710738.57-2716.01-3945.133.081.10.0094197.51
200nil31.631727.961951426.328355.3710738.57-2860.63-3945.132.921.040.004390.95
atrnil24.21284.23145935.7117461.2224898.55-9669.1-12393.71.8110.0003620.3
200trail-12.47-4640.611931615.7912260.322858.32-2588.84-3945.134.740.89-0.0093-244.24
200trail21.5-12925.3720515255570.257159.05-2718.44-3945.132.050.68-0.042-646.27
200nil21.5-14950.1520515255570.257159.05-2853.43-3945.131.950.65-0.048-747.51
atrtrail23.36-35582.71431121.4315695.7224898.55-7515.44-10855.622.090.57-0.059-2541.62
atrtrail-14.07-51180.61431121.4310496.4223428.18-7515.44-10855.621.40.38-0.098-3655.76
atrtrail33.86-57874.241431121.438265.2116734.53-7515.44-10855.621.10.3-0.13-4133.87

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 1.5. Strategy is showing mildly bearish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 35.71%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 1.57%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.042, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
STAR Performance, Profit Factor:1.5

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2017131 Jul 2017 (8.27%)
2016211 Jan 2016 (8.37%), 04 Nov 2016 (-3.79%)
2015108 Sep 2015 (-6.2%)
2014309 Jun 2014 (-4.14%), 13 Jun 2014 (-4.37%), 23 Jun 2014 (-4.22%)
2013106 Dec 2013 (-4.79%)
2008328 Aug 2008 (-5.43%), 05 Sep 2008 (15.88%), 22 Sep 2008 (18.67%)
2007227 Jun 2007 (-4.94%), 05 Jul 2007 (14.29%)
2006113 Sep 2006 (-5.65%)



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