Study: Buy STAR when RSI is above 50 and there is Bullish Crossover in MACD

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy STAR when RSI is above 50 and there is Bullish Crossover in MACD" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy STAR at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
127127.681004753475753.4134961.94-4590.23-156251.251.110.0087271.28
26441.4599455445.458138.0743211.39-6662.44-28571.431.221.020.001565.07
374996.4399485148.489223.9648318.19-7210.85-32714.291.281.20.016757.54
4-20618.5199435643.4310025.1154186.1-8066.04-28571.431.240.95-0.0041-208.27
525921.2899495049.4910249.9757746.13-9526.54-31722.611.081.050.0047261.83
615638.4199504950.5111056.7450454.21-10963.23-34346.061.011.030.0026157.96
718587.1999485148.4812951.970537.69-11825.57-35753.041.11.030.0027187.75
849072.6699504950.5113371.2265774.61-12642.62-43785.311.061.080.0066495.68
970145.0299524752.5313974.5465283.57-13968.74-42937.8511.110.0092708.54
1018567299534653.5415505.0669432.85-13828.19-38898.861.121.290.0221875.47
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 4 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
atrnil25.47144791117457238.4618825.8438063.36-9755.16-20765.911.931.210.021237.53
atrnil38.23134700107307728.0429112.7457095.04-9593.28-20765.913.031.180.0161258.88
atrtrail23.9630904.86121497240.512790.5531414.43-8275.44-20765.911.551.050.005255.41
atrtrail34.69-108413117467139.3210337.8847121.65-8224.73-20765.911.260.81-0.019-926.61
atrtrail-15.03-159542116467039.669184.8447877.98-8314.93-20765.911.10.73-0.03-1375.36

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 1.21. Profit factor is showing that this strategy doesn't give any edge over rendomness and it is only as good as tossing a coin and doing the trade. Percentage of profitable trades is 38.46%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 0.62%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.02, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
STAR Performance, Profit Factor:1.21

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019231 Jul 2019 (8.97%), 09 Sep 2019 (-3.65%)
2018315 Mar 2018 (-3.3%), 30 Nov 2018 (-4.15%), 17 Dec 2018 (9.22%)
2017405 Jan 2017 (5.49%), 06 Feb 2017 (-3.57%), 21 Nov 2017 (-3.17%), 20 Dec 2017 (-2.6%)
2016702 Mar 2016 (11.69%), 11 May 2016 (-3.45%), 07 Jun 2016 (-3.68%), 30 Jun 2016 (5.53%), 01 Jul 2016 (-2.92%), 28 Oct 2016 (6.26%), 24 Nov 2016 (-4.22%)
2015818 Feb 2015 (-3.28%), 28 Feb 2015 (7.31%), 31 Mar 2015 (-4.71%), 23 Jun 2015 (-4.07%), 06 Jul 2015 (7.28%), 07 Aug 2015 (-3.11%), 10 Aug 2015 (-3.25%), 17 Nov 2015 (-3.12%)
2014605 Jun 2014 (8.08%), 06 Jun 2014 (8.27%), 03 Jul 2014 (-3.42%), 04 Sep 2014 (6.13%), 07 Oct 2014 (-4.71%), 10 Nov 2014 (7.46%)
2013721 Jan 2013 (-4.45%), 31 Jan 2013 (-4.25%), 22 Feb 2013 (-4.92%), 25 Feb 2013 (-5.17%), 27 Jun 2013 (5.04%), 07 Aug 2013 (-6.92%), 29 Oct 2013 (5.4%)
20121302 Jan 2012 (-4.3%), 23 Jan 2012 (6.89%), 24 Jan 2012 (7.89%), 14 Mar 2012 (-4.24%), 04 Apr 2012 (9.96%), 06 Jun 2012 (-3.58%), 07 Jun 2012 (-3.84%), 18 Jun 2012 (7.09%), 13 Jul 2012 (-3.21%), 09 Aug 2012 (7.24%), 07 Sep 2012 (6.48%), 19 Oct 2012 (-3.57%), 16 Nov 2012 (7.36%)
2011204 Mar 2011 (-6.88%), 28 Mar 2011 (9.53%)
20101408 Jan 2010 (-4.53%), 18 Jan 2010 (9.84%), 10 Feb 2010 (12.83%), 03 Mar 2010 (10.46%), 19 Mar 2010 (-4.69%), 22 Apr 2010 (-4.0%), 20 May 2010 (-4.1%), 27 May 2010 (-4.79%), 03 Aug 2010 (-3.03%), 09 Sep 2010 (-3.28%), 17 Sep 2010 (-3.72%), 01 Oct 2010 (-3.78%), 22 Oct 2010 (6.63%), 06 Dec 2010 (-4.95%)
2009919 May 2009 (14.48%), 19 Jun 2009 (-8.26%), 25 Jun 2009 (-7.86%), 20 Jul 2009 (15.1%), 11 Aug 2009 (-7.48%), 02 Sep 2009 (11.79%), 30 Sep 2009 (-4.81%), 20 Oct 2009 (-4.62%), 11 Nov 2009 (10.85%)
2008206 May 2008 (-7.04%), 19 Aug 2008 (-5.69%)
2007402 Feb 2007 (-4.57%), 05 Feb 2007 (-4.74%), 08 Mar 2007 (-6.48%), 04 Jul 2007 (-4.53%)
20061016 Jan 2006 (-4.77%), 17 Jan 2006 (10.56%), 06 Feb 2006 (10.53%), 24 Mar 2006 (-3.63%), 04 Apr 2006 (-3.61%), 12 Jun 2006 (-8.86%), 10 Aug 2006 (9.94%), 19 Sep 2006 (-5.11%), 13 Nov 2006 (-4.17%), 26 Dec 2006 (10.04%)
2005804 Jan 2005 (-3.87%), 31 Jan 2005 (8.09%), 10 Mar 2005 (-3.88%), 01 Apr 2005 (-4.67%), 22 Apr 2005 (-4.72%), 10 May 2005 (7.73%), 02 Aug 2005 (8.87%), 03 Oct 2005 (-4.24%)
2004913 Feb 2004 (-7.73%), 24 May 2004 (-8.08%), 25 May 2004 (-8.74%), 15 Jul 2004 (11.92%), 13 Aug 2004 (-5.32%), 16 Aug 2004 (11.63%), 29 Sep 2004 (8.04%), 03 Nov 2004 (7.53%), 04 Nov 2004 (-3.88%)
2003319 Aug 2003 (19.03%), 13 Nov 2003 (12.38%), 14 Nov 2003 (-6.74%)
2002525 Jan 2002 (-8.61%), 07 Feb 2002 (15.01%), 26 Mar 2002 (15.71%), 18 Apr 2002 (-10.38%), 12 Jun 2002 (-8.04%)
2001112 Jan 2001 (-5.47%)



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