Study: Buy SUNPHARMA when there is Golden Cross (50 DMA > 200 DMA)

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy SUNPHARMA when there is Golden Cross (50 DMA > 200 DMA)" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy SUNPHARMA at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
111915.14148657.143751.947459.81-3016.73-5769.41.241.660.043851.08
238734.34148657.146165.4717363.34-1764.9-4596.883.494.660.12766.74
350560.691412285.714648.2812084.03-2609.32-4682.931.7810.690.163611.48
474295.741410471.438751.7228713.22-3305.36-8812.622.656.620.125306.84
51260421411378.5713089.2751612.9-5979.89-9881.872.198.030.129003.02
61215601411378.5712412.8950289.39-4993.88-7726.142.499.110.118682.87
7117909149564.2916534.3870321.54-6180.16-16168.832.684.820.0798422.04
81964641412285.7117361.1991961.41-5935.37-10468.222.9317.550.1114033.11
92136651410471.4321520.5795819.94-385.14-1264.6155.88139.690.1215261.8
102229321410471.4323016.81112540-1809.05-2824.6812.7231.810.1115923.71

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 9 trading days. Profit factor is 139.69. Strategy is very good and impressively bullish. Percentage of profitable trades is 71.43%, which is good. Average return per trade is 7.63%, which is very good.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades. This chart is important and informative as it shows the performance of strategy over time.
SUNPHARMA Performance, X=9, Profit Factor:140

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2018225 Jan 2018 (0.73%), 27 Jul 2018 (2.59%)
2016131 Mar 2016 (1.59%)
2009104 Jun 2009 (-0.63%)
2007120 Nov 2007 (-0.03%)
2003224 Jan 2003 (-0.07%), 04 Jun 2003 (8.99%)
2001210 May 2001 (-0.04%), 05 Dec 2001 (0.87%)
2000129 Dec 2000 (2.26%)
1999116 Mar 1999 (47.91%)
1998113 May 1998 (28.5%)
1997110 Mar 1997 (8.45%)
1996119 Apr 1996 (5.71%)

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
nilnil-192136651410471.4321520.5795819.94-385.14-1264.6155.88139.690.1215261.8
atrnil38.531073591771041.1825851.2644166.03-7360-14564.763.512.460.0736315.22
atrtrail34.9461052.071771041.1816103.9144166.03-5167.53-14564.763.122.180.053591.3
atrtrail24.1252818.181771041.1814927.6429444.02-5167.53-14564.762.892.020.0553106.95
atrtrail-15.18478961771041.1814224.4737808.38-5167.53-14564.762.751.930.0432817.41
atrnil25.8247039.191771041.1817234.1829444.02-7360-14564.762.341.640.0432767.01

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 139.69. Strategy is very good and impressively bullish. Percentage of profitable trades is 71.43%, which is good. Average return per trade is 7.63%, which is very good.
Performance of strategy chart over time is same as above.

View performance of other stocks for this trading system.

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