Study: Buy TATAELXSI when near 200 SMA and above 200 SMA and ADX is Trending

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy TATAELXSI when near 200 SMA and above 200 SMA and ADX is Trending" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy TATAELXSI at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
1-51724.791421214.295615.187578.88-5246.26-17335.441.070.18-0.13-3694.63
2-20237.05146842.864979.139652.93-6263.97-17246.120.790.6-0.039-1445.5
3-45681.86146842.864921.4410528.12-9401.31-30394.140.520.39-0.066-3262.99
4-45375.27145935.717067.9411079.31-8968.33-369210.790.44-0.056-3241.09
5-30008.121477505403.7514883.4-9690.63-28777.160.560.56-0.04-2143.44
6-37134.61477506397.5912931.47-11702.53-35741.960.550.55-0.043-2652.47
7-18038.891477508162.9322369.6-10739.91-36087.250.760.76-0.019-1288.49
819504.9146842.8615078.3630058.69-8870.66-33560.721.71.270.0191393.21
963005.7149564.2912731.3527404.95-10315.28-24709.451.232.220.0674500.41
1072995.62149564.2915575.134042.55-13436.05-33089.11.162.090.0595213.97
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 1 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.
TATAELXSI Performance, X=9, Profit Factor:2.22

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019130 Oct 2019 (-3.8%)
2018103 Oct 2018 (-12.35%)
2017123 May 2017 (2.53%)
2013115 Oct 2013 (13.7%)
2012103 May 2012 (-3.24%)
2010208 Oct 2010 (0.76%), 22 Oct 2010 (12.39%)
2009104 May 2009 (6.21%)
2007307 Aug 2007 (-0.5%), 27 Aug 2007 (6.55%), 19 Sep 2007 (3.42%)
2006123 May 2006 (-5.9%)
2001127 Nov 2001 (4.61%)
1997102 Jan 1997 (7.12%)

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
atrtrail24.5350130.82178947.0616008.125778.75-8659.33-15124.371.851.640.0432948.87
atrnil25.4431848.151661037.520625.3725778.75-9190.41-16078.772.241.350.0271990.51
200trail31.466518.692471729.178307.589854.76-3037.31-3910.872.741.130.011271.61
200nil31.465978.552471729.178307.589854.76-3069.09-3996.22.711.110.0097249.11
200trail21.27-2378.412691734.625573.577176.35-3090.62-3910.871.80.95-0.0044-91.48
200nil21.27-2918.552691734.625573.577176.35-3122.39-3996.21.790.95-0.0054-112.25
atrtrail-15.94-8259.69178947.068709.2829461.14-8659.33-15124.371.010.89-0.0087-485.86
atrtrail35-8883.16178947.068631.3526074.95-8659.33-15124.3710.89-0.0095-522.54
atrnil36.8-25792.98153122029520.0737242.24-9529.43-16078.773.10.77-0.022-1719.53
200trail-12.21-12690.2324618256605.0825105.23-2906.71-3910.872.270.76-0.018-528.76

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 1.64. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 47.06%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 1.47%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.043, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
TATAELXSI Performance, Profit Factor:1.64

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019130 Oct 2019 (-2.56%)
2018103 Oct 2018 (-4.34%)
2017123 May 2017 (-2.69%)
2013115 Oct 2013 (8.41%)
2012103 May 2012 (-3.26%)
2010308 Oct 2010 (1.01%), 18 Oct 2010 (-3.22%), 28 Oct 2010 (8.69%)
2009104 May 2009 (12.41%)
2007307 Aug 2007 (9.16%), 20 Aug 2007 (1.15%), 19 Sep 2007 (-4.56%)
2006123 May 2006 (-7.56%)
2001227 Nov 2001 (-6.57%), 04 Dec 2001 (12.89%)
1997202 Jan 1997 (-4.21%), 14 Jan 1997 (10.31%)



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