Study: Sell TATAGLOBAL when RSI is below 50 and there is Dead Cross (50 DMA < 200 DMA)

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Sell TATAGLOBAL when RSI is below 50 and there is Dead Cross (50 DMA < 200 DMA)" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: sell TATAGLOBAL at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. buy after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
1474.19169756.252258.713975.16-2836.31-6068.380.81.020.002129.64
221291.431688505984.4325672.88-3323-8485.741.81.80.0361330.71
310493.331661037.59112.4527246.38-4418.14-11004.482.061.240.015655.83
432520.121688509831.6226139.9-5766.6-9802.491.71.70.0392032.51
527925.19169756.258673.4529979.3-7162.26-11755.741.211.560.031745.32
619674.16169756.259169.2527743.27-8978.44-15409.311.021.310.0211229.64
761312.3616885015532.7230022.72-7868.68-12735.041.971.970.0553832.02
859838.541661037.520743.2437342.71-6462.09-14017.093.211.930.0513739.91
954173.941661037.522717.4139696.93-8213.05-17252.762.771.660.0413385.87
1052578.59167943.7518338.6535719.12-8421.33-15743.642.181.690.0433286.16
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 1 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
atrnil39.6756554.431851327.7831496.6153639.22-7763.74-12081.954.061.560.0333141.91
atrtrail24.2819087.551851327.7819124.8835759.48-5887.45-10979.563.251.250.0161060.42
atrnil25.394060.071851327.7820997.7435759.48-7763.74-12081.952.71.040.0032225.56
atrtrail34.56-3466.991851327.7814613.9721403.96-5887.45-10979.562.480.95-0.0039-192.61
atrtrail-14.94-12740.941851327.7812759.1821241.3-5887.45-10979.562.170.83-0.015-707.83

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 1.56. Strategy is showing mildly bearish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 27.78%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 1.57%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.033, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
TATAGLOBAL Performance, Profit Factor:1.56

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2016309 Feb 2016 (10.7%), 26 Dec 2016 (-2.79%), 27 Dec 2016 (-2.79%)
2014219 Feb 2014 (-2.46%), 30 Dec 2014 (-2.53%)
2013121 Mar 2013 (-3.63%)
2011213 Jan 2011 (-3.48%), 14 Jan 2011 (-3.66%)
2008219 Mar 2008 (-6.04%), 09 Jul 2008 (-5.35%)
2006126 May 2006 (24.04%)
2002106 Sep 2002 (-2.78%)
2001102 May 2001 (-5.98%)
2000122 Mar 2000 (26.82%)
1998126 May 1998 (8.95%)
1996203 May 1996 (-3.58%), 07 Aug 1996 (8.23%)
1995128 Nov 1995 (-5.4%)



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