Study: Buy TATAGLOBAL when above 200 SMA and RSI is oversold

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy TATAGLOBAL when above 200 SMA and RSI is oversold" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy TATAGLOBAL at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
1-16123.2395455.562009.553655.12-6542.74-14832.540.310.38-0.066-1791.47
22598.3195455.564347.937693.44-4785.34-6956.30.911.140.011288.7
333766.4296366.677289.0819808.61-3322.69-7021.432.194.390.13751.82
440982.4897277.787197.8913775.01-4701.36-7724.871.535.360.144553.61
553662.2897277.789728.9321850.08-7220.12-7594.611.354.720.135962.48
690702.8398188.8911902.8929152.54-4520.29-4520.292.6321.070.210078.09
762506.5296366.6714246.4919043.06-7657.48-11945.551.863.720.136945.17
880039.896366.6717492.8124772.5-8305.69-12440.572.114.210.138893.31
982135.7396366.6717554.4431951.47-7730.3-10067.112.274.540.139126.19
1063592.395455.5618924.8526996.97-7757.99-11622.692.443.050.17065.81
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 1 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.
TATAGLOBAL Performance, X=6, Profit Factor:21.1

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2018102 Feb 2018 (3.73%)
2013123 Jan 2013 (0.23%)
2009127 Oct 2009 (3.46%)
2007123 Jul 2007 (1.71%)
2005118 Oct 2005 (-2.26%)
2004222 Mar 2004 (7.41%), 14 May 2004 (11.79%)
2003122 Jul 2003 (4.7%)
1997119 Nov 1997 (14.58%)

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
atrtrail33.8170324.76167943.7518391.0126897.47-6490.26-13552.232.832.20.0654395.3
atrtrail23.3151645.2816885012893.2217931.65-6437.56-13552.23220.0623227.83
atrnil36.6773527.8615694024514.4931402.65-8173.23-13552.23320.0614901.86
atrtrail-15.8744185.2815694017732.2238474.81-6912-13552.232.571.710.0422945.69
atrnil25.644999.15157846.6715968.420935.1-8347.46-13552.231.911.670.0492999.94

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 2.2. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 43.75%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 2.2%, which is very good. Sharpe Ratio is 0.065, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
TATAGLOBAL Performance, Profit Factor:2.2

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2018302 Feb 2018 (-4.01%), 05 Feb 2018 (-4.32%), 06 Feb 2018 (2.3%)
2013323 Jan 2013 (-2.98%), 24 Jan 2013 (9.5%), 30 Jan 2013 (-0.06%)
2009127 Oct 2009 (10.25%)
2007123 Jul 2007 (-2.22%)
2005418 Oct 2005 (-3.14%), 19 Oct 2005 (-3.39%), 25 Oct 2005 (-2.31%), 27 Oct 2005 (12.92%)
2004222 Mar 2004 (3.35%), 14 May 2004 (-6.78%)
2003122 Jul 2003 (12.61%)
1997119 Nov 1997 (13.45%)



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