Study: Buy TATAPOWER when there is Bullish Crossover in MACD and ADX is Trending

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy TATAPOWER when there is Bullish Crossover in MACD and ADX is Trending" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy TATAPOWER at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
1-2638.2286384844.194181.6917386.98-3365.46-13283.441.240.98-0.0012-30.68
257846.886454152.336231.0622553.4-5428.07-16357.391.151.260.017672.64
334675.3686374943.027995.1135668.16-5329.46-22611.681.51.130.0092403.2
4-15454.4786374943.027689.4637257.82-6121.73-21030.931.260.95-0.004-179.7
51598.5586404646.518574.1232389.47-7421.01-22369.741.1610.0003618.59
61113.0686414547.679226.834376.55-8381.9-21417.841.110.0002412.94
724782.3586424448.8410004.2836742.23-8986.31-32137.731.111.060.0048288.17
872347.9686424448.8411389.7148967.25-9227.73-27465.571.231.180.013841.26
915371686424448.8413913.8858992.18-9787.89-33196.871.421.360.0231787.39
1016944086444251.1613872.582971.33-10498.79-31857.091.321.380.0231970.24
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 4 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
atrnil25.8214402098366236.7317113.2738358.46-7613.84-21408.372.251.310.0231469.59
atrnil38.6814436297286928.8724586.554313.57-7884.93-21408.373.121.270.0191488.27
atrtrail23.8730947.4798346434.6912255.8236209.04-6027.35-12154.012.031.080.0062315.79
atrtrail-14.9230076.1496336334.3812567.6472929.51-6105.65-12154.012.061.080.005313.29
atrtrail34.43-8197.2997346335.0511072.3154313.57-6105.65-12154.011.810.98-0.0016-84.51

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 1.31. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 36.73%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 0.73%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.023, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
TATAPOWER Performance, Profit Factor:1.31

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019321 Feb 2019 (-3.8%), 21 May 2019 (7.01%), 26 Aug 2019 (-5.03%)
2018916 Feb 2018 (-3.31%), 20 Mar 2018 (-2.56%), 29 May 2018 (-2.84%), 25 Jun 2018 (-2.59%), 09 Jul 2018 (-2.63%), 18 Jul 2018 (-2.92%), 26 Jul 2018 (-3.12%), 15 Oct 2018 (10.65%), 04 Dec 2018 (-3.84%)
2017320 Jun 2017 (-2.29%), 17 Aug 2017 (-2.34%), 17 Nov 2017 (5.13%)
2016216 Feb 2016 (8.39%), 28 Nov 2016 (6.63%)
2015701 Jan 2015 (-2.78%), 12 Jan 2015 (5.44%), 07 Apr 2015 (-3.02%), 19 May 2015 (-2.98%), 14 Aug 2015 (-2.7%), 10 Sep 2015 (8.24%), 18 Dec 2015 (5.06%)
2014306 Feb 2014 (6.31%), 11 Apr 2014 (-2.94%), 09 Oct 2014 (-3.1%)
2013427 Jun 2013 (6.42%), 28 Jun 2013 (-3.28%), 26 Aug 2013 (-5.06%), 11 Sep 2013 (9.81%)
2012317 Feb 2012 (-4.11%), 04 Apr 2012 (-4.3%), 18 Oct 2012 (-3.75%)
2011315 Feb 2011 (-3.38%), 07 Mar 2011 (-3.45%), 07 Sep 2011 (-3.93%)
2010107 Sep 2010 (4.43%)
2009218 May 2009 (9.62%), 10 Jun 2009 (-4.88%)
2008318 Jul 2008 (15.26%), 04 Nov 2008 (-10.7%), 28 Nov 2008 (19.18%)
2007321 Mar 2007 (10.0%), 27 Jul 2007 (-3.76%), 31 Oct 2007 (15.6%)
2006120 Jun 2006 (14.69%)
2005603 Jan 2005 (-2.54%), 31 Jan 2005 (8.53%), 13 Apr 2005 (-3.2%), 15 Apr 2005 (-3.47%), 20 Apr 2005 (-3.57%), 08 Nov 2005 (-4.47%)
2004115 Jun 2004 (-7.58%)
2003420 Jan 2003 (-2.11%), 03 Apr 2003 (4.07%), 09 Jun 2003 (5.55%), 26 Dec 2003 (5.39%)
2002507 Aug 2002 (-3.34%), 08 Oct 2002 (4.53%), 05 Nov 2002 (-2.06%), 07 Nov 2002 (-2.14%), 23 Dec 2002 (-2.44%)
2001601 Jan 2001 (9.51%), 25 Jan 2001 (-4.74%), 05 Feb 2001 (9.38%), 12 Apr 2001 (18.1%), 24 Sep 2001 (-5.43%), 11 Dec 2001 (-4.45%)
2000703 Jan 2000 (-3.73%), 04 Jan 2000 (-3.91%), 31 Jan 2000 (-5.61%), 17 Feb 2000 (-5.06%), 18 Feb 2000 (11.0%), 09 May 2000 (-6.75%), 18 Oct 2000 (-4.91%)
1999225 Feb 1999 (-4.31%), 18 Mar 1999 (-4.64%)
1998409 Apr 1998 (-3.42%), 17 Apr 1998 (-3.8%), 25 Sep 1998 (-2.08%), 05 Nov 1998 (6.69%)
1997429 Jan 1997 (-4.92%), 28 Feb 1997 (-4.1%), 25 Sep 1997 (5.99%), 28 Nov 1997 (7.65%)
1996717 Apr 1996 (4.94%), 18 Apr 1996 (5.41%), 09 Aug 1996 (-4.54%), 26 Aug 1996 (-3.88%), 15 Oct 1996 (9.89%), 13 Nov 1996 (-4.08%), 11 Dec 1996 (8.08%)
1995529 Mar 1995 (-3.21%), 12 May 1995 (-3.53%), 15 May 1995 (7.52%), 30 Oct 1995 (-2.59%), 08 Dec 1995 (7.92%)



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