Study: Buy TATAPOWER when above 200 SMA and RSI is oversold

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy TATAPOWER when above 200 SMA and RSI is oversold" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy TATAPOWER at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
193320.2696366.6717506.8732323.33-3906.98-9760.854.488.960.1510368.92
210334996366.6720624.6865863.01-6799.56-10817.583.036.070.1111483.27
310084195455.5624035.0451287.67-4833.56-12602.494.976.220.1211204.55
410733395455.5627618.0461369.86-7689.18-18516.813.594.490.111925.94
599586.6996366.6720676.7555780.82-8157.94-16213.732.535.070.111065.19
612321995455.5627425.161698.63-3476.61-7443.577.899.860.1213691
710850397277.7817504.5156109.59-7014.31-11976.052.58.730.1212055.88
890954.2695455.5621596.9747842.96-4257.65-10870.575.076.340.1110106.03
910237296366.6720495.8859630.48-6867.66-9193.922.985.970.1111374.7
1011340395455.5628104.9667565.82-6780.32-10041.464.155.180.112600.39

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 6 trading days. Profit factor is 9.86. Number of signals (total trades) generated is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Strategy is very good and impressively bullish. Percentage of profitable trades is 55.56%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 6.85%, which is very good.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades. This chart is important and informative as it shows the performance of strategy over time.
TATAPOWER Performance, X=6, Profit Factor:9.86

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2018102 Feb 2018 (2.3%)
2014113 Aug 2014 (5.82%)
2010101 Feb 2010 (-0.64%)
2008122 Jan 2008 (21.64%)
2007128 Feb 2007 (-3.72%)
2005222 Mar 2005 (-0.28%), 20 Oct 2005 (-2.32%)
2001113 Mar 2001 (30.85%)
1996116 Jul 1996 (7.96%)

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
nilnil-1612321995455.5627425.161698.63-3476.61-7443.577.899.860.1213691
atrnil22.82102307115645.4530363.7561067.88-8252.01-10531.023.683.070.0839300.61
atrtrail22.1793383.47125741.6728547.4261067.88-7050.52-10531.024.052.890.0727781.96
atrtrail3468531.8125741.6723577.0958728.88-7050.52-10531.023.342.390.0575710.98
atrtrail-14.3357610.98125741.6721392.9247808.06-7050.52-10531.023.032.170.0544800.91
atrnil311.3675019.48112918.1875165.3591601.82-8367.91-11143.988.9820.0426819.95

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 9.86. Number of signals (total trades) generated is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Strategy is very good and impressively bullish. Percentage of profitable trades is 55.56%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 6.85%, which is very good.
Performance of strategy chart over time is same as above.

View performance of other stocks for this trading system.

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