Study: Buy TITAN when there is Bullish Crossover in MACD

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy TITAN when there is Bullish Crossover in MACD" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy TITAN at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
151242.81202101101504791.0230994.15-4283.67-25740.071.121.120.008253.68
21166512021079552.975532.7133380.88-5003.67-28779.871.111.250.016577.48
31295112029510747.03829248777.35-6151.67-29574.081.351.20.013641.14
42255812029710548.0210036.7446737.5-7123.65-36063.211.411.30.0191116.74
539526620210210050.511422.8962162.16-7698.68-41597.821.481.510.0291956.76
64134472029910349.0112476.575466.94-7977.92-41509.591.561.50.0282046.77
73939522029910349.0113434.5372286.72-9088.03-37020.321.481.420.0251950.26
843749320210210050.514833.1668750-10754.89-43566.591.381.410.0252165.81
95164272029910349.0117285.979560.81-11600.76-50537.131.491.430.0272556.57
1052486620210210050.517278.0172030.65-12374.91-61653.431.41.420.0262598.35
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 1 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
atrnil38.28019912197814135.6226136.763771.88-8770.72-21918.162.981.650.0423662.06
atrtrail-15.512725112328914338.361415064296.92-6900.97-21918.162.051.280.0171174.62
atrnil26.332805452318814338.117285.8642514.59-8675.6-21918.161.991.230.0181214.48
atrtrail34.771643102359014538.312867.2844006.5-6853.41-21918.161.881.170.012699.19
atrtrail24.28-13965.512419115037.7611292.8729686.62-6944.11-21918.161.630.99-0.0011-57.95

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 1.65. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 35.62%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 1.83%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.042, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
TITAN Performance, Profit Factor:1.65

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019904 Jan 2019 (6.83%), 31 Jan 2019 (6.03%), 12 Mar 2019 (6.81%), 25 Apr 2019 (-2.01%), 14 May 2019 (7.35%), 27 Jun 2019 (-2.0%), 02 Aug 2019 (-3.06%), 08 Aug 2019 (10.39%), 22 Oct 2019 (-2.72%)
2018621 Feb 2018 (10.1%), 12 Jun 2018 (-2.57%), 02 Jul 2018 (-2.79%), 18 Jul 2018 (9.29%), 08 Oct 2018 (-3.95%), 12 Oct 2018 (-4.68%)
20171102 Feb 2017 (-2.92%), 03 Feb 2017 (9.01%), 16 Mar 2017 (-2.55%), 05 Apr 2017 (-2.53%), 12 May 2017 (-2.87%), 05 Jun 2017 (-3.59%), 06 Jun 2017 (-3.9%), 04 Jul 2017 (8.64%), 11 Oct 2017 (-2.72%), 31 Oct 2017 (7.87%), 20 Dec 2017 (8.51%)
2016922 Jan 2016 (-2.99%), 04 Mar 2016 (-4.22%), 04 Apr 2016 (9.82%), 12 May 2016 (-2.89%), 13 Jun 2016 (7.39%), 31 Aug 2016 (-2.58%), 03 Nov 2016 (-2.97%), 08 Nov 2016 (-3.18%), 30 Nov 2016 (-4.62%)
2015806 Apr 2015 (-2.8%), 23 Apr 2015 (-3.01%), 19 May 2015 (-3.51%), 19 Jun 2015 (-3.22%), 10 Aug 2015 (-2.79%), 28 Sep 2015 (-2.99%), 01 Oct 2015 (9.84%), 16 Nov 2015 (9.05%)
20141323 Jan 2014 (-2.48%), 24 Jan 2014 (-2.7%), 30 Jan 2014 (9.43%), 01 Apr 2014 (-2.85%), 06 May 2014 (9.07%), 10 Jun 2014 (-3.67%), 26 Jun 2014 (-3.88%), 05 Aug 2014 (10.16%), 30 Sep 2014 (-3.18%), 28 Oct 2014 (-2.97%), 01 Dec 2014 (-2.97%), 22 Dec 2014 (-3.34%), 30 Dec 2014 (9.13%)
20131118 Jan 2013 (-2.4%), 25 Jan 2013 (-2.53%), 01 Mar 2013 (-3.39%), 04 Mar 2013 (-3.59%), 21 Mar 2013 (-4.02%), 18 Apr 2013 (12.58%), 28 May 2013 (-3.24%), 01 Jul 2013 (16.44%), 06 Sep 2013 (17.86%), 06 Dec 2013 (-2.81%), 17 Dec 2013 (-2.81%)
2012612 Mar 2012 (-4.21%), 04 Apr 2012 (-5.04%), 03 May 2012 (-3.69%), 04 May 2012 (-3.83%), 15 Jun 2012 (11.68%), 05 Nov 2012 (-3.29%)
2011820 Jan 2011 (-3.78%), 21 Feb 2011 (-4.18%), 18 May 2011 (9.59%), 07 Jul 2011 (-3.66%), 02 Sep 2011 (11.83%), 12 Oct 2011 (-3.86%), 08 Nov 2011 (-3.18%), 22 Dec 2011 (16.47%)
20101001 Feb 2010 (12.23%), 14 May 2010 (-2.85%), 17 May 2010 (-2.91%), 28 Jun 2010 (7.03%), 16 Aug 2010 (-2.48%), 24 Aug 2010 (-2.99%), 16 Sep 2010 (7.75%), 27 Oct 2010 (-2.69%), 28 Oct 2010 (8.87%), 29 Dec 2010 (-3.75%)
2009716 Mar 2009 (16.47%), 06 May 2009 (16.54%), 24 Aug 2009 (12.43%), 07 Oct 2009 (-3.47%), 11 Nov 2009 (-4.37%), 08 Dec 2009 (-3.52%), 21 Dec 2009 (10.68%)
2008805 Feb 2008 (-10.96%), 15 Feb 2008 (-10.25%), 14 Mar 2008 (-8.1%), 25 Mar 2008 (26.36%), 14 May 2008 (-6.6%), 03 Jul 2008 (18.7%), 22 Oct 2008 (-10.87%), 25 Nov 2008 (-8.86%)
2007720 Mar 2007 (17.42%), 15 May 2007 (11.2%), 19 Jun 2007 (11.42%), 28 Aug 2007 (16.19%), 23 Oct 2007 (-5.3%), 04 Dec 2007 (-5.14%), 24 Dec 2007 (14.46%)
2006910 Feb 2006 (-4.61%), 03 Mar 2006 (-4.75%), 02 May 2006 (-4.51%), 31 May 2006 (-8.87%), 19 Jun 2006 (31.89%), 17 Oct 2006 (-2.97%), 14 Nov 2006 (-3.04%), 24 Nov 2006 (-3.17%), 21 Dec 2006 (15.46%)
2005931 Jan 2005 (14.76%), 10 Mar 2005 (-5.37%), 05 Apr 2005 (-6.07%), 21 Apr 2005 (-5.63%), 12 May 2005 (15.38%), 04 Jul 2005 (11.1%), 19 Sep 2005 (-4.02%), 03 Oct 2005 (-4.8%), 01 Nov 2005 (19.34%)
2004818 Feb 2004 (-6.04%), 30 Mar 2004 (-5.68%), 08 Jun 2004 (17.45%), 17 Aug 2004 (-4.76%), 06 Oct 2004 (-3.95%), 28 Oct 2004 (-4.79%), 17 Nov 2004 (-4.1%), 21 Dec 2004 (-3.83%)
20031124 Feb 2003 (-4.44%), 21 Mar 2003 (-5.14%), 14 May 2003 (12.72%), 12 Jun 2003 (14.08%), 02 Jul 2003 (-4.63%), 08 Aug 2003 (12.27%), 11 Aug 2003 (-4.57%), 30 Sep 2003 (15.92%), 31 Oct 2003 (-6.01%), 02 Dec 2003 (15.27%), 23 Dec 2003 (-4.92%)
2002825 Jan 2002 (14.3%), 18 Mar 2002 (-6.89%), 03 Apr 2002 (17.77%), 24 Apr 2002 (-5.25%), 30 May 2002 (20.43%), 11 Jul 2002 (-5.72%), 13 Aug 2002 (-8.31%), 08 Oct 2002 (-4.79%)
2001703 Jan 2001 (17.71%), 24 Jan 2001 (-5.73%), 07 Feb 2001 (-5.4%), 29 Mar 2001 (-8.59%), 28 Sep 2001 (-5.66%), 08 Oct 2001 (18.66%), 11 Dec 2001 (-5.87%)
2000824 Feb 2000 (-6.5%), 25 Feb 2000 (-6.84%), 16 Mar 2000 (-7.62%), 18 May 2000 (-6.85%), 12 Jul 2000 (-4.53%), 18 Aug 2000 (16.2%), 19 Oct 2000 (12.61%), 28 Nov 2000 (-5.0%)
19991216 Feb 1999 (-6.92%), 10 Mar 1999 (-6.32%), 11 Mar 1999 (-7.42%), 28 Apr 1999 (22.0%), 02 Jun 1999 (14.35%), 07 Jul 1999 (11.74%), 20 Jul 1999 (15.0%), 23 Aug 1999 (-5.2%), 24 Aug 1999 (-5.71%), 08 Sep 1999 (14.74%), 07 Oct 1999 (17.16%), 18 Nov 1999 (16.88%)
1998821 Jan 1998 (-3.02%), 04 Mar 1998 (-6.46%), 21 May 1998 (-5.69%), 25 Jun 1998 (-7.37%), 06 Aug 1998 (-4.51%), 24 Aug 1998 (13.58%), 13 Nov 1998 (-4.82%), 04 Dec 1998 (14.6%)
1997912 Feb 1997 (-4.01%), 25 Mar 1997 (16.79%), 06 Jun 1997 (-4.25%), 09 Jun 1997 (-4.59%), 09 Jul 1997 (10.27%), 05 Sep 1997 (-3.16%), 13 Oct 1997 (-2.96%), 03 Dec 1997 (-2.4%), 29 Dec 1997 (9.28%)
1996902 Feb 1996 (11.86%), 12 Feb 1996 (-4.19%), 09 Apr 1996 (8.19%), 03 Jun 1996 (10.95%), 02 Sep 1996 (-4.04%), 05 Sep 1996 (-4.01%), 11 Oct 1996 (-3.95%), 08 Nov 1996 (-3.61%), 10 Dec 1996 (13.47%)
1995817 Apr 1995 (-2.12%), 10 May 1995 (-3.36%), 12 May 1995 (-3.52%), 14 Jul 1995 (7.54%), 17 Jul 1995 (8.67%), 22 Sep 1995 (-3.32%), 25 Sep 1995 (-3.37%), 08 Dec 1995 (-4.57%)



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