Study: Sell TITAN when there is bearish divergence in RSI

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Sell TITAN when there is bearish divergence in RSI" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: sell TITAN at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. buy after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
1-38765.4238211755.263226.2915941.27-6265.73-16976.690.510.64-0.032-1020.14
2-10981638172144.742663.928597.66-7385.86-22093.020.360.29-0.088-2889.9
3-83192.5138142436.845092.0212899.84-6436.7-27986.980.790.46-0.055-2189.28
4-78110.9238132534.217136.9613738.86-6835.66-26592.281.040.54-0.049-2055.55
5-102129381919504051.0315836.39-9426.26-26902.220.430.43-0.061-2687.62
6-14703638162242.115279.6816465.65-10523.24-42393.520.50.36-0.069-3869.38
7-20153038142436.846109.3120660.72-11960.83-47068.610.510.3-0.08-5303.41
8-20735338122631.586599.4818864.77-11021.04-52258.110.60.28-0.086-5456.67
9-19312938162242.115759.5321619.37-12967.36-50533.320.440.32-0.074-5082.35
10-20962638152339.476465.9619726.68-13331.12-68280.870.490.32-0.071-5516.48

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 1 trading days. Profit factor is 0.64. This strategy is not profitable and we advice you not to use it.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
atrtrail24.19-56441.7158203834.488053.8924202.96-5724.2-11463.361.410.74-0.024-973.13
nilnil-11-38765.4238211755.263226.2915941.27-6265.73-16976.690.510.64-0.032-1020.14
atrnil25.91-14564353104318.8715675.423386.5-7032.49-11463.362.230.52-0.06-2747.98
atrtrail34.52-10798158203834.485476.9323628.97-5724.2-11463.360.960.5-0.057-1861.74
atrtrail-14.62-11890458203834.484930.7719296.83-5724.2-11463.360.860.45-0.068-2050.07
atrnil36.79-308352533505.6618105.5623628.97-7253.37-11693.252.50.15-0.19-5817.96

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 0.74. This strategy is not profitable and we advice you not to use it.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
TITAN Performance, Profit Factor:0.741

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019203 Jun 2019 (-0.88%), 10 Jun 2019 (-0.5%)
2018209 Apr 2018 (-2.78%), 16 Apr 2018 (0.26%)
2017520 Feb 2017 (-3.11%), 14 Aug 2017 (2.17%), 15 Nov 2017 (-3.17%), 17 Nov 2017 (-3.08%), 30 Nov 2017 (5.88%)
2016205 Jul 2016 (-2.05%), 19 Jul 2016 (-1.54%)
2014221 May 2014 (-4.25%), 22 May 2014 (2.38%)
2012310 Oct 2012 (-2.98%), 12 Oct 2012 (-1.58%), 22 Oct 2012 (5.23%)
2011109 Jun 2011 (-2.58%)
20101820 Jan 2010 (7.31%), 11 Feb 2010 (-2.59%), 17 Feb 2010 (0.74%), 04 Mar 2010 (1.15%), 26 Apr 2010 (-1.5%), 29 Apr 2010 (-2.26%), 04 May 2010 (-2.45%), 05 May 2010 (-1.12%), 13 May 2010 (-2.92%), 06 Jul 2010 (-2.32%), 19 Jul 2010 (-2.83%), 22 Jul 2010 (-2.53%), 30 Jul 2010 (-0.94%), 12 Aug 2010 (-2.2%), 17 Aug 2010 (0.01%), 23 Aug 2010 (0.5%), 06 Oct 2010 (4.97%), 09 Nov 2010 (-2.54%)
2009105 Jun 2009 (-2.09%)
2007121 Sep 2007 (-2.97%)
2006221 Aug 2006 (-2.94%), 05 Sep 2006 (1.52%)
2005708 Jun 2005 (-3.46%), 27 Jun 2005 (-1.49%), 30 Jun 2005 (-3.86%), 14 Jul 2005 (-5.16%), 18 Jul 2005 (1.8%), 30 Nov 2005 (-4.44%), 02 Dec 2005 (-4.23%)
2004226 Aug 2004 (-4.93%), 31 Aug 2004 (2.17%)
2003103 Nov 2003 (11.69%)
2002203 Dec 2002 (-2.63%), 05 Dec 2002 (0.01%)
2001120 Nov 2001 (-5.49%)
1999204 Jan 1999 (12.1%), 09 Dec 1999 (-5.73%)
1998324 Sep 1998 (-4.66%), 30 Sep 1998 (10.51%), 31 Dec 1998 (2.26%)
1997104 Aug 1997 (7.88%)



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