Study: Buy TORNTPHARM when there is Bullish Crossover in MACD

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy TORNTPHARM when there is Bullish Crossover in MACD" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy TORNTPHARM at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
1145033195969949.234540.6636818.07-2938.08-15997.161.551.50.027743.76
22528591951039252.826382.133439.69-4396.71-30714.541.451.630.0331296.71
3193048195979849.747888.7252048.19-5838.34-43210.11.351.340.019989.99
41605201958610944.110550.5672289.16-6851.63-50568.791.541.210.013823.18
52615111959010546.1511310.7588096.39-7204.35-52168.51.571.350.0211341.08
6288760195979849.7411407.25111229-8344.32-61304.661.371.350.021480.82
74960101951009551.2813367.13136193-8849.51-67401.351.511.590.032543.64
87181121951009551.2815640.67163084-8904.79-61571.281.761.850.0393682.63
97054581951029352.3115342.69154410-9241.89-62868.821.661.820.0393617.73
107492591951068954.3615389.99171566-9911.01-51884.111.551.850.0393842.35
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 4 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
atrnil39.637511051987512337.8824139.7843148.91-8612.83-21067.852.81.710.0483793.46
atrnil26.3360761222210212045.9515903.9429535.41-8454.91-21067.851.881.60.0452736.99
atrtrail-16.024170662228913340.0914391.31148405-6494.44-21067.852.221.480.0251878.68
atrtrail35.333153932249113340.6213024.5138693.12-6540.13-21067.851.991.360.0251408.01
atrtrail24.663188132329813442.2412284.6729535.41-6605.11-21067.851.861.360.0271374.2

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 1.71. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 37.88%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 1.9%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.048, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
TORNTPHARM Performance, Profit Factor:1.71

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019526 Feb 2019 (-2.27%), 03 Jun 2019 (-3.09%), 24 Jul 2019 (10.19%), 15 Oct 2019 (-3.35%), 16 Oct 2019 (10.56%)
2018622 Jan 2018 (-2.57%), 12 Feb 2018 (-3.51%), 02 Apr 2018 (8.4%), 31 May 2018 (9.72%), 24 Oct 2018 (11.72%), 12 Dec 2018 (9.31%)
2017720 Feb 2017 (7.64%), 17 Aug 2017 (-3.76%), 18 Aug 2017 (-3.92%), 14 Sep 2017 (9.23%), 04 Oct 2017 (11.29%), 22 Nov 2017 (-3.29%), 23 Nov 2017 (10.29%)
2016927 Jan 2016 (-3.54%), 18 Feb 2016 (-4.22%), 02 Mar 2016 (11.88%), 06 Jun 2016 (-3.17%), 29 Jun 2016 (7.28%), 01 Aug 2016 (8.97%), 18 Aug 2016 (-2.76%), 08 Sep 2016 (-3.28%), 21 Nov 2016 (-4.46%)
2015728 Jan 2015 (-3.72%), 29 Jan 2015 (-4.38%), 10 Mar 2015 (10.86%), 14 May 2015 (-4.35%), 10 Jun 2015 (9.71%), 01 Oct 2015 (-4.3%), 21 Dec 2015 (-2.82%)
2014916 Jan 2014 (8.2%), 13 Feb 2014 (-3.73%), 22 Mar 2014 (-3.1%), 03 Apr 2014 (10.11%), 25 Apr 2014 (10.28%), 09 Jun 2014 (12.1%), 30 Jul 2014 (9.43%), 29 Oct 2014 (8.14%), 31 Dec 2014 (-3.92%)
2013819 Feb 2013 (-2.61%), 08 Mar 2013 (-2.51%), 21 Mar 2013 (7.71%), 08 Jul 2013 (-2.72%), 05 Aug 2013 (-3.64%), 03 Sep 2013 (11.7%), 31 Oct 2013 (9.72%), 04 Dec 2013 (-3.71%)
2012624 Apr 2012 (-2.85%), 29 Jun 2012 (7.94%), 28 Aug 2012 (-3.17%), 31 Aug 2012 (-3.14%), 25 Oct 2012 (-2.93%), 30 Nov 2012 (8.3%)
2011616 Mar 2011 (10.29%), 06 May 2011 (-3.15%), 15 Jun 2011 (-3.74%), 07 Sep 2011 (-3.76%), 11 Oct 2011 (-3.35%), 30 Dec 2011 (10.29%)
20101018 Jan 2010 (-3.84%), 08 Mar 2010 (12.2%), 13 May 2010 (-3.49%), 24 May 2010 (-3.33%), 31 May 2010 (-4.02%), 21 Jun 2010 (-3.21%), 19 Jul 2010 (-2.78%), 23 Aug 2010 (-4.0%), 31 Aug 2010 (11.26%), 20 Dec 2010 (-3.57%)
20091420 Jan 2009 (-7.28%), 13 Feb 2009 (-5.09%), 26 Feb 2009 (-5.23%), 05 Mar 2009 (-5.26%), 06 Mar 2009 (17.81%), 07 May 2009 (-5.08%), 20 May 2009 (17.82%), 02 Jul 2009 (-5.64%), 21 Jul 2009 (13.34%), 21 Aug 2009 (13.3%), 29 Sep 2009 (-4.89%), 15 Oct 2009 (-4.44%), 05 Nov 2009 (13.23%), 04 Dec 2009 (-4.46%)
2008905 Feb 2008 (-7.75%), 15 Feb 2008 (-7.38%), 28 Mar 2008 (18.43%), 15 May 2008 (-4.62%), 17 Jun 2008 (-5.09%), 22 Jul 2008 (19.35%), 26 Aug 2008 (-4.07%), 29 Oct 2008 (-9.14%), 04 Dec 2008 (21.57%)
2007606 Feb 2007 (-4.01%), 21 Mar 2007 (-5.74%), 18 Jul 2007 (-4.99%), 28 Aug 2007 (-6.7%), 10 Oct 2007 (-5.56%), 05 Dec 2007 (10.72%)
20061131 Jan 2006 (9.0%), 01 Feb 2006 (9.76%), 27 Mar 2006 (14.74%), 21 Apr 2006 (-5.03%), 23 Jun 2006 (-8.05%), 28 Jul 2006 (16.38%), 06 Sep 2006 (-3.74%), 09 Oct 2006 (9.27%), 14 Nov 2006 (-3.67%), 04 Dec 2006 (-5.44%), 27 Dec 2006 (15.04%)
2005915 Feb 2005 (-4.32%), 24 Feb 2005 (-3.89%), 03 Mar 2005 (-4.47%), 10 May 2005 (-3.68%), 24 May 2005 (14.42%), 28 Jun 2005 (13.37%), 16 Sep 2005 (-4.3%), 18 Nov 2005 (-3.24%), 28 Nov 2005 (8.57%)
20041011 Feb 2004 (14.11%), 02 Apr 2004 (15.14%), 06 May 2004 (-4.93%), 24 May 2004 (-6.0%), 07 Jun 2004 (-4.51%), 14 Jul 2004 (11.97%), 27 Sep 2004 (-3.33%), 28 Sep 2004 (10.81%), 18 Nov 2004 (-2.93%), 13 Dec 2004 (-2.98%)
20031024 Feb 2003 (-3.69%), 26 Mar 2003 (-3.99%), 03 Apr 2003 (-3.94%), 30 Apr 2003 (12.61%), 02 Jun 2003 (-3.88%), 20 Jun 2003 (-3.85%), 31 Jul 2003 (14.97%), 27 Aug 2003 (16.27%), 04 Nov 2003 (-5.53%), 27 Nov 2003 (14.19%)
2002815 Jan 2002 (15.22%), 22 Feb 2002 (15.7%), 25 Feb 2002 (-5.31%), 09 Apr 2002 (-5.28%), 04 Jun 2002 (-6.33%), 26 Aug 2002 (-3.72%), 08 Oct 2002 (-3.92%), 16 Dec 2002 (9.46%)
2001409 Jul 2001 (-10.53%), 28 Sep 2001 (-5.03%), 28 Nov 2001 (-4.14%), 12 Dec 2001 (-4.65%)
2000101 Mar 2000 (-8.46%)
1999906 Jan 1999 (9.77%), 15 Feb 1999 (11.37%), 07 May 1999 (17.07%), 02 Jun 1999 (-5.09%), 23 Jun 1999 (-3.58%), 30 Jun 1999 (10.12%), 06 Aug 1999 (12.99%), 10 Sep 1999 (17.63%), 20 Dec 1999 (18.73%)
19981018 Feb 1998 (7.76%), 23 Apr 1998 (-6.17%), 22 May 1998 (-5.66%), 25 Jun 1998 (-6.72%), 29 Jul 1998 (-3.82%), 24 Sep 1998 (-2.67%), 26 Oct 1998 (-3.71%), 09 Nov 1998 (-3.18%), 19 Nov 1998 (-2.93%), 04 Dec 1998 (7.26%)
1997828 Feb 1997 (9.09%), 09 Apr 1997 (-3.55%), 13 Jun 1997 (-2.89%), 31 Jul 1997 (11.91%), 29 Sep 1997 (11.22%), 30 Oct 1997 (-4.02%), 03 Nov 1997 (-4.24%), 28 Nov 1997 (-3.5%)
19961019 Jan 1996 (-4.1%), 12 Feb 1996 (-5.17%), 05 Jun 1996 (-6.49%), 05 Aug 1996 (-6.58%), 26 Aug 1996 (-5.9%), 11 Oct 1996 (-4.75%), 14 Oct 1996 (16.22%), 15 Nov 1996 (-4.88%), 18 Nov 1996 (15.67%), 02 Dec 1996 (19.49%)
1995609 May 1995 (-3.37%), 13 Jul 1995 (7.62%), 01 Sep 1995 (-2.14%), 13 Nov 1995 (-2.54%), 14 Nov 1995 (-2.65%), 26 Dec 1995 (-3.16%)



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