Study: Sell TORNTPHARM when RSI is below 50 and there is Dead Cross (50 DMA < 200 DMA)

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Sell TORNTPHARM when RSI is below 50 and there is Dead Cross (50 DMA < 200 DMA)" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: sell TORNTPHARM at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. buy after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
1-4540.32169756.252528.635293.69-3899.71-10228.060.650.83-0.015-283.77
2-49775.221661037.54400.7913923.13-7618-17968.210.580.35-0.08-3110.95
3-54500.79167943.754988.8518781.73-9935.86-32121.210.50.39-0.064-3406.3
4-67989.73167943.75639325163.16-12526.74-29545.450.510.4-0.072-4249.36
5-81228.781661037.56423.6120594.63-11977.04-26515.150.540.32-0.092-5076.8
6-1025381661037.58883.4422262.51-15583.87-57331.980.570.34-0.074-6408.63
7-75182.291688508672.7523422.77-18070.53-52494.910.480.48-0.055-4698.89
8-77110.64167943.7510375.0824220.45-16637.35-46792.260.620.49-0.058-4819.42
9-1035251688507259.7325018.13-20200.34-57586.560.360.36-0.071-6470.3
10-103913169756.258141.5324438-25312.37-65936.860.320.41-0.063-6494.55

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 1 trading days. Profit factor is 0.83. Profit factor is showing that this strategy doesn't give any edge over rendomness and it is only as good as tossing a coin and doing the trade. Percentage of profitable trades is 56.25%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is -0.14%, we advise you not to use this strategy.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
nilnil-11-4540.32169756.252528.635293.69-3899.71-10228.060.650.83-0.015-283.77
atrnil27.12-58019.551731417.6520038.829516.57-8438.28-12817.12.370.51-0.062-3412.91
atrtrail33.65-81426.871721511.7610262.8519872.61-6796.84-12817.11.510.2-0.14-4789.82
atrnil38.53-121697171165.8819872.6119872.61-8848.12-14758.282.250.14-0.21-7158.67
atrtrail23.65-88051.071721511.766950.7513248.41-6796.84-12817.11.020.14-0.19-5179.47
atrtrail-13.71-98385.021721511.761783.782914.46-6796.84-12817.10.260.035-0.29-5787.35

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 0.83. Profit factor is showing that this strategy doesn't give any edge over rendomness and it is only as good as tossing a coin and doing the trade. Percentage of profitable trades is 56.25%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is -0.14%, we advise you not to use this strategy.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
TORNTPHARM Performance, X=1, Profit Factor:0.834

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019104 Jun 2019 (0.93%)
2016211 Feb 2016 (2.45%), 14 Dec 2016 (1.15%)
2013103 May 2013 (0.52%)
2011116 Mar 2011 (1.03%)
2008114 Nov 2008 (2.65%)
2007217 May 2007 (0.51%), 26 Sep 2007 (-0.56%)
2006124 Jul 2006 (-1.42%)
2004103 May 2004 (-3.29%)
2003121 Mar 2003 (0.44%)
2002124 Sep 2002 (-0.43%)
2001106 Aug 2001 (1.71%)
1998103 Aug 1998 (-0.55%)
1997128 Oct 1997 (-5.11%)
1996130 Jan 1996 (-2.27%)



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