Study: Sell TVSMOTOR when there is Bearish Crossover in MACD and ADX is Trending

home > technical-strategy > tvsmotor > 27

In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Sell TVSMOTOR when there is Bearish Crossover in MACD and ADX is Trending" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: sell TVSMOTOR at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. buy after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
1-39220.0881305137.045477.1416089.8-3990.87-13976.241.370.81-0.019-484.2
2-26392.4581344741.986945.0527951.15-5585.62-23060.81.240.9-0.0089-325.83
3-11089481315038.277771.3425070.16-7036.1-25188.921.10.68-0.033-1369.06
4-22149281305137.046133.8721834.06-7951.14-28715.370.770.45-0.068-2734.47
5-23179781324939.516854.817816.59-9207.16-35114.750.740.49-0.063-2861.69
6-19885281334840.748082.2121889.62-9699.26-36786.890.830.57-0.047-2454.96
7-22539281324939.518696.2726200.87-10279.02-40428.790.850.55-0.05-2782.61
8-26178881344741.989015.4237729.26-12091.74-44655.580.750.54-0.052-3231.95
9-29901781344741.988912.9742969.43-12809.74-46554.360.70.5-0.06-3691.57
10-35048681364544.449073.233537.12-15047.13-54408.060.60.48-0.064-4326.99
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 1 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
atrtrail23.99-71877.1294316332.9812918.4830777.28-7497.62-18076.611.720.85-0.015-764.65
atrnil25.06-11004493276629.0318824.3830777.28-9368.21-19149.732.010.82-0.02-1183.27
atrnil37.82-28398588167218.1824972.8639321.9-9493.76-19149.732.630.58-0.053-3227.1
atrtrail34.44-19962591296231.878857.3632422.98-7362.72-18076.611.20.56-0.053-2193.68
atrtrail-14.88-24986390286231.117307.8730772.61-7330.38-18076.6110.45-0.075-2776.26

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 0.85. Profit factor is showing that this strategy doesn't give any edge over rendomness and it is only as good as tossing a coin and doing the trade. Percentage of profitable trades is 32.98%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is -0.38%, we advise you not to use this strategy.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
TVSMOTOR Performance, Profit Factor:0.848

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019119 Jul 2019 (7.22%)
2018221 Feb 2018 (-2.45%), 19 Mar 2018 (6.66%)
20171022 Mar 2017 (-1.12%), 05 May 2017 (-2.57%), 08 May 2017 (-0.81%), 24 May 2017 (-2.2%), 25 Jul 2017 (-2.15%), 10 Aug 2017 (4.47%), 11 Aug 2017 (-2.95%), 22 Sep 2017 (-2.23%), 23 Oct 2017 (-1.94%), 02 Nov 2017 (-0.29%)
2016608 Apr 2016 (-2.77%), 25 Apr 2016 (5.87%), 30 May 2016 (-1.86%), 15 Sep 2016 (-2.8%), 24 Oct 2016 (-2.43%), 30 Oct 2016 (5.77%)
2015522 Jan 2015 (-3.79%), 07 May 2015 (-5.45%), 24 Aug 2015 (-4.21%), 25 Aug 2015 (8.55%), 01 Sep 2015 (-4.87%)
2014909 Jan 2014 (-3.65%), 07 Mar 2014 (-2.99%), 02 Apr 2014 (0.61%), 04 Jun 2014 (-2.47%), 09 Jul 2014 (-5.1%), 10 Jul 2014 (0.58%), 22 Jul 2014 (-5.25%), 17 Sep 2014 (-5.32%), 07 Nov 2014 (-1.54%)
2013617 Jan 2013 (8.31%), 27 Feb 2013 (-4.57%), 28 Feb 2013 (-3.95%), 14 May 2013 (-4.66%), 06 Aug 2013 (-5.01%), 29 Oct 2013 (0.55%)
2012305 Jan 2012 (-2.95%), 24 Jul 2012 (-1.2%), 10 Oct 2012 (-2.08%)
2011306 Jan 2011 (10.41%), 27 Jan 2011 (10.81%), 22 Sep 2011 (-4.5%)
2010822 Jan 2010 (0.49%), 16 Apr 2010 (-0.33%), 14 May 2010 (11.79%), 15 Jun 2010 (0.75%), 16 Jul 2010 (-4.37%), 06 Aug 2010 (-4.01%), 09 Aug 2010 (-1.51%), 20 Sep 2010 (7.48%)
2009625 Mar 2009 (-6.99%), 26 May 2009 (-9.04%), 15 Jun 2009 (-0.48%), 07 Aug 2009 (14.69%), 07 Oct 2009 (-5.73%), 27 Oct 2009 (2.19%)
2008418 Mar 2008 (15.39%), 08 Apr 2008 (-6.8%), 14 May 2008 (6.61%), 10 Oct 2008 (-7.73%)
2007410 Jan 2007 (-4.5%), 31 Jan 2007 (-3.54%), 04 Apr 2007 (-6.3%), 24 Dec 2007 (-5.31%)
2006715 Feb 2006 (-4.0%), 20 Feb 2006 (0.03%), 09 Mar 2006 (-2.82%), 20 Apr 2006 (13.73%), 19 Jul 2006 (-6.47%), 11 Dec 2006 (9.24%), 12 Dec 2006 (-5.45%)
2005330 May 2005 (-2.57%), 13 Jun 2005 (7.13%), 30 Jun 2005 (-4.72%)
2004108 Dec 2004 (1.14%)
2003722 Jan 2003 (1.41%), 24 Feb 2003 (4.55%), 05 Jun 2003 (-3.74%), 08 Jul 2003 (-2.46%), 18 Sep 2003 (-4.97%), 14 Oct 2003 (-4.35%), 29 Dec 2003 (-2.45%)
2002715 Feb 2002 (-5.56%), 28 Feb 2002 (-5.88%), 02 Apr 2002 (0.13%), 10 May 2002 (9.75%), 27 Aug 2002 (12.34%), 09 Sep 2002 (-0.08%), 12 Dec 2002 (-3.78%)
2001122 Feb 2001 (11.58%)
2000110 Nov 2000 (-8.11%)



View performance of other stocks for this trading system.

Get Clearnifty's Android App.

Get clearnifty on Google Play
Get clearnifty on Google Play