Study: Sell TVSMOTOR when below 200 SMA and RSI is overbought

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Sell TVSMOTOR when below 200 SMA and RSI is overbought" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: sell TVSMOTOR at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. buy after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
1-15609.5383537.53393.734238.41-5158.15-9543.570.660.39-0.089-1951.19
2-14297.2483537.56974.1510335.92-7043.94-9958.510.990.59-0.054-1787.15
3-18964.33844506980.4413114.75-11721.53-17415.470.60.6-0.053-2370.54
4-55461.8883537.53755.287493.54-13345.55-30798.30.280.17-0.14-6932.73
5-13374.9683537.510040.6314728.68-8699.37-20500.711.150.69-0.033-1671.87
6-63687.7783537.57667.2620025.84-17337.91-31535.270.440.27-0.11-7960.97
7-67481.483537.510197.3720671.83-19614.7-49126.120.520.31-0.1-8435.17
8-10619783537.513887.8426356.59-29572.11-77178.420.470.28-0.1-13274.63
9-90874.4283537.517264.4828552.97-28533.57-53526.970.610.36-0.094-11359.3
10-83100.918445013462.3526356.59-34237.58-65560.170.390.39-0.082-10387.61
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 4 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
atrnil37.67-23492.212392525828.0428229.5-11219.59-18579.432.30.77-0.027-1957.68
atrnil24-49320.2312392517218.6918819.66-11219.59-18579.431.530.51-0.073-4110.02
atrtrail33.58-50284.6612392510445.4128229.5-9068.99-18579.431.150.38-0.083-4190.39
atrtrail-13.75-59369.811239257417.0219144.34-9068.99-18579.430.820.27-0.12-4947.48
atrtrail23.33-59694.491239257308.818819.66-9068.99-18579.430.810.27-0.12-4974.54

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 0.77. Profit factor is showing that this strategy doesn't give any edge over rendomness and it is only as good as tossing a coin and doing the trade. Percentage of profitable trades is 25%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is -0.98%, we advise you not to use this strategy.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
TVSMOTOR Performance, Profit Factor:0.767

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2012209 Jul 2012 (-3.83%), 11 Jul 2012 (11.43%)
2009209 Apr 2009 (-6.4%), 13 Apr 2009 (-6.97%)
2007228 May 2007 (13.2%), 31 Aug 2007 (-4.46%)
2006204 Sep 2006 (-3.96%), 05 Sep 2006 (-3.99%)
2005102 Jun 2005 (-2.98%)
2004104 Aug 2004 (14.11%)
2001222 Oct 2001 (-9.29%), 25 Oct 2001 (-8.61%)



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