Study: Sell ULTRACEMCO when ADX is Trending and there is Dead Cross (50 DMA < 200 DMA)

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Sell ULTRACEMCO when ADX is Trending and there is Dead Cross (50 DMA < 200 DMA)" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: sell ULTRACEMCO at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. buy after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
1-7377.8774357.141256.682432.57-4134.87-7905.980.30.41-0.083-1053.98
2-30519.2773442.861753.252847.23-8944.76-14611.190.20.15-0.17-4359.9
3-41259.873442.861873.954615.38-11720.42-23291.230.160.12-0.17-5894.26
4-52000.2173442.862691.653157.59-15018.79-20666.170.180.13-0.2-7428.6
5-65024.873442.862915.733064.38-18443-24879.810.160.12-0.2-9289.26
6-61179.4671614.294066.414066.41-10874.31-22904.30.370.062-0.23-8739.92
7-63510.971614.293413.923413.92-11154.14-21123.810.310.051-0.24-9072.99
8-63099.8972528.571241.592062.34-13116.61-23379.690.0950.038-0.23-9014.27
9-59100.4572528.575293.397277.72-13937.45-25461.360.380.15-0.18-8442.92
10-54374.1272528.575949.736734.63-13254.72-25854.380.450.18-0.17-7767.73

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 1 trading days. Profit factor is 0.41. Number of signals (total trades) generated is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. This strategy is not profitable and we advice you not to use it.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
nilnil-11-7377.8774357.141256.682432.57-4134.87-7905.980.30.41-0.083-1053.98
atrtrail24.43-38349.971614.291267.391267.39-6602.88-14383.940.190.032-0.26-5478.56
atrtrail34.43-38349.971614.291267.391267.39-6602.88-14383.940.190.032-0.26-5478.56
atrtrail-14.43-38349.971614.291267.391267.39-6602.88-14383.940.190.032-0.26-5478.56
atrnil27.14-55740.57707000-7962.94-14383.9400-0.62-7962.94
atrnil37.14-55740.57707000-7962.94-14383.9400-0.62-7962.94

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 0.41. Number of signals (total trades) generated is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. This strategy is not profitable and we advice you not to use it.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
ULTRACEMCO Performance, X=1, Profit Factor:0.405

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2018126 Oct 2018 (-1.62%)
2017103 Jan 2017 (0.76%)
2014110 Jan 2014 (0.13%)
2013109 May 2013 (1.22%)
2010109 Jul 2010 (0.4%)
2008112 Feb 2008 (-0.63%)
2007113 Apr 2007 (-3.95%)



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