Study: Sell UNIONBANK when there is Bearish Crossover in MACD

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Sell UNIONBANK when there is Bearish Crossover in MACD" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: sell UNIONBANK at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. buy after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
172883.69137776056.24419.5126513.26-4456.98-20498.080.991.270.021532
2106290137706751.097286.7828588.59-6026.64-23642.661.211.260.022775.84
363658.69137756254.747225.0838798.8-7713.26-24904.210.941.130.012464.66
440714.55137667148.189766.6148768.77-8505.37-28130.561.151.070.0062297.19
557373.42137667148.1811125.9971111.11-9534.39-41979.251.171.080.0074418.78
673320.3137716651.8210986.0280360.36-10707.38-44692.741.031.10.0089535.18
781926.41137686949.6412592.0968468.47-11222.26-46927.371.121.110.0091598
863315.91137696850.3613428.2451771.77-12694.6-44629.081.061.070.0066462.16
9-6533.79137716651.8214303.7352372.37-15486.34-53631.280.920.99-0.00062-47.69
10-11971.81137746354.0113371.4654534.53-15896.19-52035.120.840.99-0.0011-87.39

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 1 trading days. Profit factor is 1.27. Strategy is showing mildly bearish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 56.2%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 0.27%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.021, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Win loss ratio is less than 1 which is bad, avoid this strategy.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
nilnil-1172883.69137776056.24419.5126513.26-4456.98-20498.080.991.270.021532
atrnil25.95153504149579238.2618548.3935418.29-9823.41-20134.161.891.170.0181030.23
atrtrail24.0423419.39154569836.3613370.7835239.8-7401.47-20134.161.811.030.0032152.07
atrnil39.47-13682.78135369926.6726993.1453127.44-9953.9-20134.162.710.99-0.0015-101.35
atrtrail34.62-39593.24153559835.9512305.9842910.7-7310.43-20134.161.680.94-0.0052-258.78
atrtrail-15.03-91610.85153559835.9511360.2145699.05-7310.43-20134.161.550.87-0.013-598.76

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 1.27. Strategy is showing mildly bearish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 56.2%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 0.27%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.021, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Win loss ratio is less than 1 which is bad, avoid this strategy.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
UNIONBANK Performance, X=1, Profit Factor:1.27

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019521 Jan 2019 (2.72%), 08 Apr 2019 (-2.66%), 10 Jul 2019 (-1.82%), 03 Sep 2019 (-0.19%), 01 Oct 2019 (-1.18%)
2018911 Jan 2018 (0.86%), 01 Feb 2018 (3.48%), 23 Apr 2018 (1.6%), 10 May 2018 (-0.63%), 20 Jun 2018 (3.37%), 16 Aug 2018 (-2.61%), 04 Sep 2018 (1.77%), 23 Oct 2018 (-1.2%), 28 Nov 2018 (-0.5%)
2017613 Feb 2017 (0.62%), 07 Apr 2017 (-2.44%), 15 May 2017 (-3.86%), 02 Aug 2017 (4.3%), 25 Sep 2017 (-0.61%), 09 Nov 2017 (-0.42%)
2016805 Jan 2016 (-0.49%), 12 Feb 2016 (-9.04%), 07 Apr 2016 (-0.68%), 21 Jul 2016 (3.44%), 16 Sep 2016 (-0.67%), 13 Oct 2016 (0.7%), 27 Oct 2016 (-2.64%), 02 Dec 2016 (-1.9%)
2015807 Jan 2015 (-4.46%), 28 Jan 2015 (4.68%), 24 Apr 2015 (3.31%), 04 Jun 2015 (0.42%), 22 Jul 2015 (1.45%), 21 Aug 2015 (13.26%), 15 Oct 2015 (1.4%), 09 Dec 2015 (4.37%)
2014707 Jan 2014 (-4.36%), 23 Apr 2014 (-2.65%), 13 Jun 2014 (0.9%), 09 Sep 2014 (1.53%), 23 Sep 2014 (1.89%), 07 Nov 2014 (1.21%), 15 Dec 2014 (0.59%)
2013922 Feb 2013 (1.72%), 21 Mar 2013 (-1.34%), 09 Apr 2013 (-1.97%), 11 May 2013 (2.99%), 21 Jun 2013 (5.25%), 17 Jul 2013 (-4.54%), 30 Sep 2013 (-2.19%), 12 Nov 2013 (2.79%), 13 Dec 2013 (1.26%)
20121023 Feb 2012 (2.46%), 17 Apr 2012 (0.46%), 07 May 2012 (1.3%), 04 Jun 2012 (-0.75%), 25 Jun 2012 (-3.02%), 17 Jul 2012 (2.89%), 29 Aug 2012 (-0.46%), 09 Oct 2012 (2.03%), 19 Nov 2012 (0.96%), 24 Dec 2012 (-1.97%)
20111110 Jan 2011 (-2.33%), 10 Feb 2011 (-3.98%), 24 Feb 2011 (-2.39%), 23 Mar 2011 (-2.45%), 13 Apr 2011 (0.04%), 25 May 2011 (0.42%), 16 Jun 2011 (0.05%), 28 Jul 2011 (-0.42%), 05 Oct 2011 (-2.51%), 24 Oct 2011 (1.08%), 13 Dec 2011 (-0.53%)
2010614 Jan 2010 (-1.07%), 25 Jun 2010 (-2.77%), 28 Jul 2010 (1.36%), 08 Oct 2010 (-0.32%), 27 Oct 2010 (3.4%), 07 Dec 2010 (5.46%)
2009907 Jan 2009 (-0.84%), 16 Feb 2009 (3.76%), 29 Apr 2009 (-5.25%), 17 Jun 2009 (2.89%), 07 Jul 2009 (0.77%), 24 Jul 2009 (-0.19%), 05 Oct 2009 (-0.68%), 26 Oct 2009 (-2.91%), 03 Dec 2009 (0.27%)
2008811 Jan 2008 (0.12%), 07 Feb 2008 (0.6%), 22 Feb 2008 (2.45%), 25 Jun 2008 (0.88%), 18 Aug 2008 (2.38%), 15 Sep 2008 (-4.96%), 22 Oct 2008 (0.04%), 21 Nov 2008 (3.4%)
2007819 Jan 2007 (0.46%), 22 Feb 2007 (2.32%), 28 May 2007 (-0.71%), 05 Jul 2007 (0.04%), 31 Jul 2007 (8.72%), 08 Oct 2007 (-3.66%), 21 Nov 2007 (3.18%), 19 Dec 2007 (0.24%)
2006901 Feb 2006 (-0.17%), 16 Mar 2006 (1.06%), 12 Apr 2006 (-1.4%), 27 Apr 2006 (0.68%), 15 May 2006 (-2.58%), 19 Jul 2006 (-4.33%), 24 Aug 2006 (-2.08%), 10 Oct 2006 (1.68%), 24 Nov 2006 (0.49%)
2005717 Feb 2005 (3.83%), 17 Mar 2005 (2.48%), 18 Apr 2005 (1.44%), 20 Jun 2005 (-2.47%), 10 Aug 2005 (0.45%), 21 Sep 2005 (4.19%), 07 Oct 2005 (3.07%)
2004919 Feb 2004 (0.49%), 15 Mar 2004 (2.64%), 07 May 2004 (4.02%), 14 Jun 2004 (-10.25%), 09 Jul 2004 (-2.62%), 12 Aug 2004 (0.33%), 29 Sep 2004 (-2.58%), 12 Oct 2004 (1.21%), 15 Dec 2004 (0.34%)
2003730 Jan 2003 (2.24%), 21 Apr 2003 (2.22%), 09 Jun 2003 (10.73%), 10 Jul 2003 (-0.88%), 06 Aug 2003 (-2.48%), 04 Sep 2003 (0.22%), 23 Oct 2003 (-2.41%)
2002131 Dec 2002 (-0.26%)



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