Study: Buy UNIONBANK when RSI is above 50 and there is Bullish Crossover in MACD

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy UNIONBANK when RSI is above 50 and there is Bullish Crossover in MACD" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy UNIONBANK at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
167872.4289464351.694631.517762.28-3376.2-9487.91.371.470.036762.61
210660189503956.186032.3937032.71-5000.48-15120.271.211.550.0381197.76
312504089464351.698848.1842698.6-6557.6-18278.31.351.440.0341404.94
486963.3289474252.819646.3941588.79-8724.21-37028.31.111.240.02977.12
594988.2889464351.6911374.3650992.99-9958.9-33136.791.141.220.0181067.28
661072.1489474252.8111676.1966880.84-11612.12-31965.871.011.130.011686.2
7-1687.5189395043.8212888.551282.05-10086.78-27239.911.281-0.00032-18.96
8-16862.4689474252.8110701.6552278.04-12377.14-38204.460.860.97-0.0031-189.47
9329.8489474252.8111793.5946169.35-13189.74-41218.870.8915.7e-053.71
10-22842.6789464351.6912404.1147983.87-13800.74-35178.660.90.96-0.0038-256.66
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 1 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
atrnil38.8916630790286231.1126987.7544351.17-9505.65-18059.162.841.280.0261847.85
atrtrail34.8768079.2997366137.1113518.7635218.26-6862.23-17258.951.971.160.014701.85
atrtrail24.4241595.9699386138.3812279.0523478.84-6967.34-17258.951.761.10.0095420.16
atrtrail-15.4333066.2596356136.4612904.6352793.07-6862.23-17258.951.881.080.0067344.44
atrnil26.1919787.9597336434.0218511.1529642.64-9235.63-18059.1621.030.0037204

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 1.28. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 31.11%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 0.92%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.026, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
UNIONBANK Performance, Profit Factor:1.28

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019128 May 2019 (-5.07%)
2018420 Aug 2018 (-3.95%), 30 Aug 2018 (-4.04%), 30 Oct 2018 (-5.89%), 18 Dec 2018 (12.63%)
2017215 Mar 2017 (9.24%), 26 Apr 2017 (9.12%)
2016502 Mar 2016 (-6.26%), 18 Aug 2016 (11.36%), 05 Oct 2016 (-3.93%), 24 Oct 2016 (-3.69%), 15 Nov 2016 (-4.78%)
2015520 Jan 2015 (-3.52%), 13 May 2015 (13.69%), 23 Jun 2015 (-4.18%), 03 Aug 2015 (13.27%), 18 Sep 2015 (-5.5%)
2014615 May 2014 (15.7%), 16 May 2014 (17.61%), 05 Aug 2014 (-4.57%), 15 Sep 2014 (-3.85%), 16 Sep 2014 (-4.34%), 13 Oct 2014 (14.54%)
2013502 Apr 2013 (-4.47%), 15 Apr 2013 (13.26%), 19 Nov 2013 (-5.02%), 06 Dec 2013 (-4.0%), 23 Dec 2013 (-4.08%)
2012530 Mar 2012 (-5.25%), 02 May 2012 (-3.87%), 07 Jun 2012 (-3.93%), 27 Jun 2012 (-3.56%), 05 Nov 2012 (13.72%)
2011514 Feb 2011 (-3.59%), 08 Mar 2011 (-3.75%), 13 May 2011 (-3.82%), 12 Oct 2011 (-4.93%), 28 Nov 2011 (-4.72%)
2010605 Jan 2010 (-3.44%), 25 Feb 2010 (10.09%), 03 Jun 2010 (-4.67%), 15 Jul 2010 (-2.46%), 13 Sep 2010 (10.16%), 25 Oct 2010 (-3.01%)
2009910 Feb 2009 (-4.81%), 18 May 2009 (-7.15%), 19 May 2009 (-7.59%), 12 Jun 2009 (-7.29%), 29 Jun 2009 (-5.74%), 20 Jul 2009 (-5.31%), 14 Oct 2009 (9.37%), 18 Nov 2009 (-4.11%), 23 Nov 2009 (-4.26%)
2008605 Feb 2008 (-8.63%), 18 Feb 2008 (-7.24%), 02 Sep 2008 (-6.46%), 14 Oct 2008 (-7.35%), 05 Nov 2008 (-9.03%), 15 Dec 2008 (-7.41%)
2007705 Jun 2007 (-3.9%), 19 Jun 2007 (12.8%), 09 Jul 2007 (-4.19%), 03 Sep 2007 (17.52%), 15 Oct 2007 (-5.85%), 30 Oct 2007 (22.18%), 28 Dec 2007 (15.35%)
2006628 Feb 2006 (-3.47%), 04 Apr 2006 (-3.5%), 24 Apr 2006 (-3.83%), 04 May 2006 (-4.28%), 14 Sep 2006 (-3.84%), 16 Nov 2006 (-3.72%)
2005528 Jan 2005 (16.35%), 01 Mar 2005 (-4.46%), 01 Jul 2005 (9.55%), 09 Sep 2005 (-3.96%), 05 Oct 2005 (-3.74%)
2004613 Feb 2004 (-4.71%), 09 Mar 2004 (-3.88%), 26 Mar 2004 (16.13%), 27 Aug 2004 (13.17%), 05 Oct 2004 (-3.32%), 03 Nov 2004 (10.9%)
2003713 Jan 2003 (11.07%), 21 Mar 2003 (15.78%), 02 May 2003 (12.85%), 03 Jul 2003 (-5.01%), 04 Jul 2003 (16.29%), 20 Aug 2003 (-4.48%), 30 Sep 2003 (14.11%)



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