Study: Buy VEDL when there is Bullish Crossover in MACD

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy VEDL when there is Bullish Crossover in MACD" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy VEDL at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
1-4.45954e+061926312932.8135750.03565511-52029.4-1562130.690.34-0.049-23226.78
28.46922e+06192999351.5691229.65725213-6048.5-36483.4115.0816.060.05944110.54
3-3479651928310943.2347287.721.09221e+06-39200.42-1569941.210.92-0.0028-1812.32
42.04631e+071921098356.771939312.62406e+06-8136.09-34051.1823.8431.30.055106579
54.71385e+061929210047.9290248.171.50781e+06-35889.81-1563332.512.310.02624551.31
64.77572e+071921118157.814369417.83145e+06-9177-43780.0947.6165.250.048248735
71.68451e+07192989451.042026833.15105e+06-32105.25-1510026.316.580.0487734.83
81.21483e+081921157759.91.06382e+062.75601e+07-11125.96-45097.5495.62142.80.039632723
94.83962e+071921009252.085143007.97675e+06-32977.12-15089715.616.950.043252063
102.96573e+081921147859.382.60949e+064.92079e+07-11657.23-46212.31223.85327.170.0391.54465e+06
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 1 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.
VEDL Performance, X=10, Profit Factor:327

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019714 Jan 2019 (-0.8%), 31 Jan 2019 (-23.11%), 21 Feb 2019 (4.71%), 20 May 2019 (-1.74%), 25 Jul 2019 (-19.1%), 19 Aug 2019 (-7.03%), 31 Oct 2019 (-4.21%)
20181029 Jan 2018 (-8.54%), 22 Feb 2018 (-7.45%), 08 Jun 2018 (-7.21%), 24 Jul 2018 (4.88%), 20 Aug 2018 (1.33%), 14 Sep 2018 (-1.25%), 31 Oct 2018 (-1.7%), 19 Nov 2018 (-2.44%), 04 Dec 2018 (1.14%), 31 Dec 2018 (-4.53%)
2017906 Jan 2017 (3.45%), 20 Feb 2017 (-3.72%), 24 Mar 2017 (1.98%), 03 May 2017 (0.94%), 08 Jun 2017 (-0.13%), 17 Aug 2017 (3.33%), 01 Sep 2017 (1.29%), 16 Oct 2017 (-1.0%), 12 Dec 2017 (11.27%)
2016801 Feb 2016 (6.53%), 18 Apr 2016 (12.82%), 30 May 2016 (7.0%), 30 Jun 2016 (23.8%), 22 Aug 2016 (-1.13%), 28 Sep 2016 (11.96%), 01 Nov 2016 (-5.96%), 28 Nov 2016 (7.96%)
2015722 Jan 2015 (4.72%), 06 Apr 2015 (10.23%), 24 Jun 2015 (-17.26%), 31 Aug 2015 (2.69%), 07 Oct 2015 (15.81%), 27 Nov 2015 (-9.19%), 21 Dec 2015 (6.76%)
20141120 Jan 2014 (-9.68%), 18 Feb 2014 (-3.59%), 06 Mar 2014 (-5.58%), 22 Mar 2014 (8.41%), 14 May 2014 (40.22%), 19 Aug 2014 (-5.63%), 08 Sep 2014 (-0.42%), 27 Oct 2014 (-2.93%), 18 Nov 2014 (-7.25%), 04 Dec 2014 (-14.08%), 29 Dec 2014 (-4.2%)
2013412 Aug 2013 (11.72%), 20 Aug 2013 (11.42%), 22 Oct 2013 (1.68%), 06 Dec 2013 (11.16%)
2012512 Jan 2012 (1.75%), 17 Feb 2012 (1233.44%), 19 Jun 2012 (4.23%), 28 Jun 2012 (117.81%), 30 Nov 2012 (3.07%)
2011512 Jan 2011 (-5.34%), 28 Jan 2011 (674.01%), 21 Feb 2011 (-15.4%), 30 Aug 2011 (-0.79%), 10 Oct 2011 (713.87%)
2010915 Jan 2010 (-6.42%), 02 Feb 2010 (309.67%), 12 Mar 2010 (99.17%), 13 Apr 2010 (-5.2%), 27 Apr 2010 (2894.09%), 26 May 2010 (105.81%), 15 Jun 2010 (746.1%), 09 Jul 2010 (692.61%), 18 Nov 2010 (644.82%)
2009310 Aug 2009 (1639.22%), 25 Sep 2009 (865.17%), 17 Dec 2009 (338.02%)
2008607 Jan 2008 (13735.2%), 13 Mar 2008 (7459.64%), 21 May 2008 (8851.79%), 23 Jun 2008 (2157.8%), 14 Jul 2008 (8067.79%), 26 Sep 2008 (251.73%)
20071622 Jan 2007 (295.44%), 27 Feb 2007 (3603.16%), 26 Mar 2007 (-1.7%), 04 Apr 2007 (239.68%), 30 Apr 2007 (233.88%), 11 May 2007 (24206.46%), 22 Jun 2007 (24603.95%), 31 Jul 2007 (199.45%), 07 Aug 2007 (24172.29%), 12 Sep 2007 (260.45%), 03 Oct 2007 (267.77%), 12 Oct 2007 (13971.44%), 23 Nov 2007 (259.99%), 30 Nov 2007 (3.07%), 14 Dec 2007 (-2.82%), 28 Dec 2007 (0.02%)
20061216 Jan 2006 (-3.51%), 22 Feb 2006 (9.48%), 17 Mar 2006 (0.27%), 12 May 2006 (445.52%), 23 May 2006 (827.83%), 27 Jun 2006 (193.75%), 11 Jul 2006 (119.65%), 07 Sep 2006 (297.23%), 09 Oct 2006 (565.5%), 02 Nov 2006 (156.76%), 23 Nov 2006 (-0.49%), 28 Dec 2006 (671.28%)
20051420 Jan 2005 (921.68%), 01 Apr 2005 (-3.35%), 22 Apr 2005 (-7.74%), 09 May 2005 (-4.8%), 30 May 2005 (-2.41%), 08 Jun 2005 (-3.8%), 15 Jun 2005 (1.96%), 04 Jul 2005 (15.92%), 21 Jul 2005 (-0.24%), 04 Aug 2005 (2.81%), 17 Aug 2005 (-9.68%), 30 Aug 2005 (7.8%), 01 Nov 2005 (4.58%), 29 Nov 2005 (5.08%)
20041216 Jan 2004 (-7.39%), 13 Feb 2004 (-13.55%), 30 Mar 2004 (-4.93%), 23 Apr 2004 (-15.03%), 24 May 2004 (-12.47%), 18 Jun 2004 (9.36%), 29 Jul 2004 (9.12%), 05 Aug 2004 (-1.78%), 13 Sep 2004 (2.57%), 20 Sep 2004 (-0.81%), 01 Oct 2004 (7.02%), 05 Nov 2004 (-2.43%)
2003916 Jan 2003 (-13.39%), 18 Feb 2003 (-2.83%), 04 Apr 2003 (26.87%), 17 Jun 2003 (6.07%), 01 Jul 2003 (10.44%), 12 Aug 2003 (17.78%), 01 Oct 2003 (-0.7%), 31 Oct 2003 (26.86%), 22 Dec 2003 (-5.78%)
2002608 Jan 2002 (-2.59%), 11 Feb 2002 (1.64%), 18 Mar 2002 (-4.24%), 05 Apr 2002 (15.67%), 30 May 2002 (23.39%), 20 Dec 2002 (-2.68%)
2001810 Jan 2001 (0.17%), 25 Jan 2001 (9.13%), 28 Mar 2001 (-17.96%), 22 May 2001 (-3.06%), 14 Jun 2001 (-17.8%), 05 Jul 2001 (2.48%), 31 Jul 2001 (-0.38%), 10 Oct 2001 (-0.75%)
2000514 Mar 2000 (2.39%), 17 May 2000 (4.13%), 12 Jul 2000 (-16.77%), 18 Aug 2000 (3.87%), 27 Oct 2000 (21.22%)
1999718 Feb 1999 (1.94%), 05 May 1999 (20.27%), 06 Jul 1999 (6.43%), 12 Aug 1999 (46.27%), 13 Oct 1999 (-6.36%), 18 Nov 1999 (6.92%), 22 Dec 1999 (-0.5%)
1998711 Mar 1998 (-3.82%), 08 May 1998 (3.65%), 10 Jul 1998 (13.3%), 20 Aug 1998 (-13.12%), 07 Sep 1998 (-4.34%), 09 Nov 1998 (0.45%), 08 Dec 1998 (-4.44%)
1997111 Apr 1997 (-2.76%)
1996615 Feb 1996 (-6.25%), 25 Mar 1996 (0.56%), 20 Jun 1996 (7.46%), 14 Aug 1996 (0.07%), 14 Oct 1996 (19.92%), 02 Dec 1996 (8.54%)
1995508 Jun 1995 (-7.06%), 27 Jun 1995 (-2.56%), 14 Aug 1995 (-0.77%), 01 Nov 1995 (-0.75%), 08 Dec 1995 (4.87%)

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
atrtrail-124.552.77377e+111162649839.514.33401e+1092.77377e+111-7017.48-39815.716.17602e+1054.03332e+1050.0141.7122e+109
atrnil316.392.1547e+07121675455.37332116631732-13050.99-11187225.4531.570.13178075
atrnil213.281.66411e+07134835161.94208372421155-12820.03-11187216.2526.450.13124187
atrtrail311.122.09636e+0720510010548.78219392631732-9291.01-11187223.6122.490.086102262
atrtrail29.961.62554e+0721811010850.46156984421155-9377.99-11187216.7417.050.0974565.93

In the table above, row 3 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 26.45. Strategy is very good and impressively bullish. Percentage of profitable trades is 61.94%, which is good. Average return per trade is 62.09%, which is very good. Average holding period is on the higher side, note this before entering the trade that you you may need to hold the positions for a longer time.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
VEDL Performance, Profit Factor:26.5

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2012312 Jan 2012 (171.8%), 17 Feb 2012 (148.13%), 19 Jun 2012 (154.51%)
2011212 Jan 2011 (147.47%), 21 Feb 2011 (142.66%)
2010715 Jan 2010 (160.74%), 12 Mar 2010 (140.59%), 13 Apr 2010 (147.88%), 26 May 2010 (152.8%), 15 Jun 2010 (145.93%), 09 Jul 2010 (129.49%), 18 Nov 2010 (146.41%)
2009410 Aug 2009 (190.62%), 25 Sep 2009 (137.3%), 17 Dec 2009 (0.08%), 17 Dec 2009 (-55.94%)
2008607 Jan 2008 (191.21%), 13 Mar 2008 (208.93%), 21 May 2008 (206.72%), 23 Jun 2008 (210.58%), 14 Jul 2008 (197.53%), 26 Sep 2008 (204.45%)
20071622 Jan 2007 (193.43%), 27 Feb 2007 (193.67%), 26 Mar 2007 (192.34%), 04 Apr 2007 (190.97%), 30 Apr 2007 (190.1%), 11 May 2007 (182.98%), 22 Jun 2007 (187.08%), 31 Jul 2007 (176.3%), 07 Aug 2007 (179.62%), 12 Sep 2007 (186.67%), 03 Oct 2007 (192.04%), 12 Oct 2007 (189.59%), 23 Nov 2007 (193.12%), 30 Nov 2007 (184.98%), 14 Dec 2007 (194.65%), 28 Dec 2007 (194.82%)
20061216 Jan 2006 (15.85%), 22 Feb 2006 (8.38%), 22 Feb 2006 (51.78%), 12 May 2006 (165.77%), 23 May 2006 (179.84%), 27 Jun 2006 (179.71%), 11 Jul 2006 (175.9%), 07 Sep 2006 (160.49%), 09 Oct 2006 (170.03%), 02 Nov 2006 (170.09%), 23 Nov 2006 (170.45%), 28 Dec 2006 (182.22%)
2005320 Jan 2005 (144.58%), 01 Apr 2005 (-13.5%), 22 Apr 2005 (51.84%)
2004916 Jan 2004 (-5.65%), 13 Feb 2004 (-5.54%), 30 Mar 2004 (-7.26%), 23 Apr 2004 (-6.35%), 24 May 2004 (-7.83%), 18 Jun 2004 (1.16%), 18 Jun 2004 (-20.79%), 29 Jul 2004 (47.81%), 05 Nov 2004 (114.79%)
20031016 Jan 2003 (-3.63%), 18 Feb 2003 (-4.32%), 04 Apr 2003 (8.8%), 17 Jun 2003 (-6.08%), 01 Jul 2003 (12.17%), 12 Aug 2003 (13.69%), 01 Oct 2003 (-5.85%), 31 Oct 2003 (12.18%), 22 Dec 2003 (-5.15%), 23 Dec 2003 (11.48%)
2002908 Jan 2002 (-4.54%), 16 Jan 2002 (-4.41%), 11 Feb 2002 (7.48%), 18 Mar 2002 (7.39%), 19 Mar 2002 (-3.99%), 05 Apr 2002 (8.87%), 30 May 2002 (-6.44%), 31 May 2002 (13.91%), 20 Dec 2002 (-4.28%)
20011110 Jan 2001 (-5.76%), 25 Jan 2001 (-5.47%), 29 Jan 2001 (11.8%), 28 Mar 2001 (-8.29%), 22 May 2001 (12.26%), 14 Jun 2001 (-5.37%), 15 Jun 2001 (-5.85%), 05 Jul 2001 (-5.23%), 31 Jul 2001 (-4.23%), 09 Aug 2001 (8.15%), 10 Oct 2001 (-4.43%)
2000903 Jan 2000 (-4.82%), 04 Jan 2000 (-5.06%), 14 Mar 2000 (15.23%), 17 May 2000 (-6.35%), 25 May 2000 (13.11%), 12 Jul 2000 (-4.74%), 13 Jul 2000 (-5.38%), 18 Aug 2000 (13.03%), 27 Oct 2000 (9.54%)
1999918 Feb 1999 (-4.88%), 19 Feb 1999 (-5.41%), 05 May 1999 (13.09%), 06 Jul 1999 (8.51%), 12 Jul 1999 (8.12%), 12 Aug 1999 (10.49%), 13 Oct 1999 (-6.03%), 18 Nov 1999 (11.49%), 22 Dec 1999 (-4.57%)
1998811 Mar 1998 (-5.41%), 08 May 1998 (-4.32%), 10 Jul 1998 (17.48%), 20 Aug 1998 (-5.0%), 07 Sep 1998 (-4.76%), 09 Nov 1998 (-5.05%), 08 Dec 1998 (-4.17%), 09 Dec 1998 (-4.53%)
1997111 Apr 1997 (-4.46%)
1996715 Feb 1996 (-1.84%), 25 Mar 1996 (4.42%), 20 Jun 1996 (7.48%), 21 Jun 1996 (-3.78%), 14 Aug 1996 (-4.76%), 14 Oct 1996 (13.23%), 02 Dec 1996 (7.39%)
1995808 Jun 1995 (-2.61%), 09 Jun 1995 (-2.78%), 20 Jun 1995 (-3.51%), 27 Jun 1995 (-3.53%), 14 Aug 1995 (7.78%), 01 Nov 1995 (5.7%), 10 Nov 1995 (-2.97%), 08 Dec 1995 (4.31%)



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