Study: Buy VGUARD when RSI is above 50 and there is Golden Cross (50 DMA > 200 DMA)

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy VGUARD when RSI is above 50 and there is Golden Cross (50 DMA > 200 DMA)" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy VGUARD at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
13698.8765183.331261.042419.35-2606.35-2606.350.482.420.12616.48
225321.2665183.335119.9110574.02-278.29-278.2918.491.990.334220.21
335510.816601005918.4716465.2600infinf0.345918.47
433863.446601005643.9112839.8800infinf0.455643.91
556274.2265183.3311374.0926435.05-596.23-596.2319.0895.380.299379.04
664159.9964266.6716658.1830060.42-1236.36-2279.713.4726.950.2410693.33
767010.6165183.3313791.4230513.6-1946.51-1946.517.0935.430.2611168.43
856268.3364266.6714795.1124924.47-1456.06-2349.8510.1620.320.279378.06
969494.965183.3313983.1527179.96-420.87-420.8733.22166.120.3311582.48
1065242.4466010010873.7426669.7600infinf0.3410873.74

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 3 trading days. Profit factor is inf. Number of signals (total trades) generated is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Strategy is very good and impressively bullish. Percentage of profitable trades is 100%, which is excellent. Average return per trade is 2.96%, which is very good.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades. This chart is important and informative as it shows the performance of strategy over time.
VGUARD Performance, X=3, Profit Factor:inf

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2016111 May 2016 (0.59%)
2014122 May 2014 (0.67%)
2013130 Jul 2013 (1.53%)
2012106 Jun 2012 (3.94%)
2011104 May 2011 (2.8%)
2009127 May 2009 (8.23%)

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
nilnil-1335510.816601005918.4716465.2600infinf0.345918.47
atrtrail37.1472864.7575271.4316114.628090.61-3854.12-6371.574.1810.450.2410409.25
atrtrail-18.7163829.775271.4314307.5924596.38-3854.12-6371.573.719.280.249118.53
atrtrail26.1458713.9975271.4313284.4518727.07-3854.12-6371.573.458.620.278387.71
atrnil28.4364800.3575271.4315795.818727.07-7089.33-7807.092.235.570.279257.19
atrnil39.5774906.0574357.1424107.6728090.61-7174.87-7807.093.364.480.2110700.86

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is inf. Number of signals (total trades) generated is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Strategy is very good and impressively bullish. Percentage of profitable trades is 100%, which is excellent. Average return per trade is 2.96%, which is very good.
Performance of strategy chart over time is same as above.

View performance of other stocks for this trading system.

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