Study: Buy VGUARD when RSI is below 50 and there is Bullish Crossover in MACD

home > technical-strategy > vguard > 64

In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy VGUARD when RSI is below 50 and there is Bullish Crossover in MACD" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy VGUARD at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
135380.2132201262.52749.818685.28-1634.67-4500.381.682.80.121105.63
227366.2632201262.54248.3313505.13-4800.03-15648.930.891.480.045855.2
333605.7832181456.255235.6617275.11-4331.15-9604.641.211.550.0511050.18
444614.0932191359.386304.3524576.47-5782.2-12587.411.091.590.0521394.19
553623.1732171553.128055.1331496.06-5554.27-12448.811.451.640.0541675.72
679656.9432201262.58033.0924290.15-6750.4-16380.021.191.980.082489.28
712915832211165.629793.8732211.88-6955.8-13457.191.412.690.114036.17
886345.5632191359.389590.5829269.57-7375.04-17035.221.31.90.0712698.3
910122032211165.629691.8132593.65-9300.69-20475.021.041.990.0753163.13
1011826832211165.6210179.1832641.37-8681.37-25061.431.172.240.0893695.87

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 1 trading days. Profit factor is 2.8. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 62.5%, which is good. Average return per trade is 0.55%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades. This chart is important and informative as it shows the performance of strategy over time.
VGUARD Performance, X=1, Profit Factor:2.8

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019221 Feb 2019 (0.53%), 24 May 2019 (4.34%)
2018515 Feb 2018 (2.2%), 04 Apr 2018 (1.01%), 14 Jun 2018 (-1.21%), 09 Jul 2018 (3.46%), 12 Oct 2018 (1.63%)
2017302 Jan 2017 (0.31%), 21 Jun 2017 (-1.31%), 06 Jul 2017 (-0.56%)
2016203 Mar 2016 (-0.6%), 08 Dec 2016 (-0.85%)
2015416 Feb 2015 (-2.25%), 17 Jun 2015 (0.54%), 08 Jul 2015 (1.62%), 14 Sep 2015 (-0.16%)
2014111 Feb 2014 (0.63%)
2013519 Feb 2013 (-0.02%), 05 Mar 2013 (0.08%), 19 Jun 2013 (-1.22%), 04 Oct 2013 (2.98%), 20 Nov 2013 (0.13%)
2011424 Mar 2011 (0.87%), 05 Sep 2011 (1.07%), 30 Nov 2011 (1.0%), 29 Dec 2011 (0.75%)
2010203 Jun 2010 (-0.36%), 20 Dec 2010 (1.33%)
2009123 Mar 2009 (1.94%)
2008317 Jun 2008 (1.06%), 10 Jul 2008 (-0.92%), 29 Oct 2008 (-0.36%)

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
nilnil-1135380.2132201262.52749.818685.28-1634.67-4500.381.682.80.121105.63
atrtrail37.1415723736211558.3311719.6825523.08-5925.09-10764.781.982.770.124367.69
atrnil310.1120140935161945.7121613.0637811.87-7599.99-12131.092.842.390.115754.54
atrnil2816779736201655.5614448.2125207.91-7572.93-12131.091.912.380.124661.04
atrtrail26.5611711136211558.339808.9320729.35-5925.09-10764.781.662.320.113253.09
atrtrail-19.0910851135201557.149682.0930245.29-5675.41-10764.781.712.270.0923100.31

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 2.8. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 62.5%, which is good. Average return per trade is 0.55%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
Performance of strategy chart over time is same as above.

View performance of other stocks for this trading system.

Get Clearnifty's Android App.

Get clearnifty on Google Play
Get clearnifty on Google Play