Study: Buy WOCKPHARMA when RSI is below 50 and there is Bullish Crossover in MACD

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy WOCKPHARMA when RSI is below 50 and there is Bullish Crossover in MACD" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy WOCKPHARMA at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
177814.7459302950.854467.8317053.98-1938.63-7227.842.32.380.0661318.89
264662.8459322754.245309.8622397.07-3898.25-36228.291.361.610.0331095.98
310765659322754.247997.9746404.39-5491.8-46083.861.461.730.0381824.68
476657.2759312852.549130.943659.65-7371.45-45835.721.241.370.0251299.28
510918059283147.461182246221.41-7155.98-47407.271.651.490.0321850.52
612854059322754.2411440.6656797.8-8798.55-48628.871.31.540.0352178.65
717180359322754.2412994.2555919.49-9037.53-47082.781.441.70.0442911.91
815070059302950.8513498.2451564.5-8767.15-43793.341.541.590.0392554.24
918573459322754.2413372.7557932.3-8970.14-44690.461.491.770.0463148.03
1022731059352459.3212400.8959322.96-8613.36-40440.291.442.10.0583852.72

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 1 trading days. Profit factor is 2.38. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 50.85%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 0.66%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.066, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades. This chart is important and informative as it shows the performance of strategy over time.
WOCKPHARMA Performance, X=1, Profit Factor:2.38

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019221 Feb 2019 (-0.93%), 22 May 2019 (-0.75%)
2018626 Feb 2018 (1.44%), 13 Mar 2018 (2.63%), 04 Apr 2018 (1.37%), 30 May 2018 (-0.2%), 30 Jul 2018 (-0.82%), 29 Oct 2018 (-1.16%)
2017202 Jun 2017 (-0.01%), 29 Jun 2017 (-0.46%)
2016613 Jan 2016 (-3.61%), 01 Jun 2016 (0.69%), 28 Jun 2016 (0.58%), 30 Aug 2016 (-1.52%), 01 Dec 2016 (-1.6%), 29 Dec 2016 (1.44%)
2015218 May 2015 (3.02%), 16 Jun 2015 (1.95%)
2014206 Feb 2014 (-2.58%), 05 Nov 2014 (4.28%)
2013217 Jun 2013 (3.21%), 14 Aug 2013 (4.44%)
2012107 Jan 2012 (8.53%)
2011430 Mar 2011 (-1.1%), 19 May 2011 (5.58%), 06 Sep 2011 (0.55%), 05 Oct 2011 (-0.19%)
2010308 Mar 2010 (-0.71%), 25 Mar 2010 (-2.38%), 19 May 2010 (-2.05%)
2009217 Mar 2009 (6.72%), 31 Dec 2009 (0.84%)
2008318 Feb 2008 (1.22%), 09 Jul 2008 (-0.27%), 12 Nov 2008 (-0.34%)
2007313 Jul 2007 (0.83%), 28 Aug 2007 (-1.21%), 07 Dec 2007 (0.82%)
2006411 May 2006 (3.0%), 15 Jun 2006 (-1.23%), 01 Aug 2006 (1.43%), 28 Dec 2006 (0.32%)
2005202 May 2005 (-1.15%), 08 Nov 2005 (-1.29%)
2003203 Mar 2003 (-0.95%), 13 May 2003 (2.35%)
2002611 Jun 2002 (0.09%), 22 Jul 2002 (-0.57%), 05 Aug 2002 (0.26%), 03 Sep 2002 (-0.41%), 11 Nov 2002 (0.0%), 17 Dec 2002 (0.28%)
2001510 Apr 2001 (-0.34%), 28 May 2001 (0.05%), 19 Jun 2001 (0.64%), 11 Jul 2001 (-0.03%), 03 Aug 2001 (0.77%)
2000217 Aug 2000 (-0.27%), 24 Oct 2000 (7.7%)

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
atrtrail25.4526433765313447.6914291.0127434.27-5255.41-195882.722.480.0844066.73
atrtrail36.5926204364303446.8814690.8938129.6-5255.41-195882.82.470.0774094.42
atrnil311.2743034162273543.5526896.1261676.26-8452.98-195883.182.450.0866940.98
atrnil28.0234516163323150.7918551.3241117.51-8015.54-195882.312.390.095478.74
nilnil-1177814.7459302950.854467.8317053.98-1938.63-7227.842.32.380.0661318.89
atrtrail-17.4416955763273642.8613104.7631884.49-5118.65-195882.561.920.0562691.38

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 2.48. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 47.69%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 2.03%, which is very good. Sharpe Ratio is 0.084, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
WOCKPHARMA Performance, Profit Factor:2.48

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019221 Feb 2019 (8.44%), 22 May 2019 (-1.06%)
2018726 Feb 2018 (-0.22%), 13 Mar 2018 (-1.79%), 04 Apr 2018 (-1.68%), 30 May 2018 (-4.22%), 07 Jun 2018 (8.35%), 30 Jul 2018 (1.38%), 29 Oct 2018 (12.31%)
2017202 Jun 2017 (-1.74%), 29 Jun 2017 (-3.55%)
2016613 Jan 2016 (-3.58%), 01 Jun 2016 (-0.05%), 28 Jun 2016 (6.23%), 30 Aug 2016 (1.71%), 01 Dec 2016 (-3.68%), 29 Dec 2016 (-0.18%)
2015218 May 2015 (13.72%), 16 Jun 2015 (1.6%)
2014306 Feb 2014 (-3.57%), 19 Feb 2014 (7.64%), 05 Nov 2014 (7.06%)
2013217 Jun 2013 (-4.74%), 14 Aug 2013 (-2.44%)
2012107 Jan 2012 (12.71%)
2011430 Mar 2011 (10.78%), 19 May 2011 (9.26%), 06 Sep 2011 (1.23%), 05 Oct 2011 (8.4%)
2010408 Mar 2010 (-3.69%), 25 Mar 2010 (-3.93%), 19 May 2010 (-4.23%), 28 May 2010 (9.62%)
2009217 Mar 2009 (12.9%), 31 Dec 2009 (8.44%)
2008318 Feb 2008 (-0.51%), 09 Jul 2008 (-6.87%), 12 Nov 2008 (-9.79%)
2007413 Jul 2007 (-1.16%), 28 Aug 2007 (7.0%), 07 Dec 2007 (6.69%), 10 Dec 2007 (7.38%)
2006411 May 2006 (-1.0%), 15 Jun 2006 (-0.31%), 01 Aug 2006 (8.57%), 28 Dec 2006 (0.32%)
2005202 May 2005 (6.86%), 08 Nov 2005 (0.57%)
2003203 Mar 2003 (-2.33%), 13 May 2003 (6.76%)
2002711 Jun 2002 (-2.63%), 22 Jul 2002 (-0.92%), 05 Aug 2002 (-1.87%), 16 Aug 2002 (-2.4%), 03 Sep 2002 (-2.21%), 11 Nov 2002 (4.96%), 17 Dec 2002 (5.94%)
2001610 Apr 2001 (11.6%), 28 May 2001 (-1.97%), 19 Jun 2001 (4.67%), 20 Jun 2001 (-2.72%), 11 Jul 2001 (-1.85%), 03 Aug 2001 (-2.62%)
2000217 Aug 2000 (-3.83%), 24 Oct 2000 (8.41%)



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