Study: Sell ZEEL when below 200 SMA and near 50 SMA and below 50 SMA and RSI is below 50

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Sell ZEEL when below 200 SMA and near 50 SMA and below 50 SMA and RSI is below 50" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: sell ZEEL at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. buy after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
171509.9832191359.385318.213576.39-2271.99-6451.612.343.420.0892234.69
274683.6332181456.258463.7131443.25-5547.36-22353.481.531.960.0452333.86
385065.0132201262.57569.0625620.21-5526.34-14447.981.372.280.0592658.28
497590.73216165011944.4533699.26-5845.03-20172.652.042.040.0523049.71
536838.1232181456.259977.9536253.63-10197.5-35438.440.981.260.0171151.19
65767.432151746.8812769.0548424.61-10927.55-36521.741.171.030.0022180.23
7-12824.643216165014098.8540798.86-14900.39-49891.30.950.95-0.0042-400.77
8-32654.5332141843.7517746.2543965.76-15616.78-58695.651.140.88-0.0094-1020.45
9-70074.713216165015820.5949306.63-20200.26-60217.390.780.78-0.019-2189.83
10-81283.832141843.7519312.2558936.83-19536.41-64891.30.990.77-0.02-2540.12

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 1 trading days. Profit factor is 3.42. Strategy is very good and impressively bearish. Percentage of profitable trades is 59.38%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 1.12%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.089, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades. This chart is important and informative as it shows the performance of strategy over time.
ZEEL Performance, X=1, Profit Factor:3.42

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019216 Aug 2019 (-0.42%), 13 Sep 2019 (1.58%)
2018126 Dec 2018 (-2.05%)
2016122 Mar 2016 (0.38%)
2012203 Jan 2012 (1.02%), 18 Jan 2012 (-0.13%)
2011415 Mar 2011 (-0.13%), 20 Jun 2011 (-1.42%), 14 Nov 2011 (1.86%), 19 Dec 2011 (-0.3%)
2010129 Dec 2010 (-1.15%)
2009209 Jan 2009 (3.89%), 28 Apr 2009 (-2.68%)
2008226 Jun 2008 (3.81%), 17 Sep 2008 (4.08%)
2007213 Jun 2007 (-0.67%), 27 Jun 2007 (1.41%)
2006101 Feb 2006 (1.67%)
2005225 May 2005 (0.46%), 16 Jun 2005 (0.35%)
2004205 May 2004 (-0.8%), 15 Jul 2004 (-0.64%)
2001120 Dec 2001 (5.78%)
2000310 Mar 2000 (6.15%), 20 Jul 2000 (6.79%), 20 Sep 2000 (4.99%)
1997420 Jan 1997 (4.39%), 14 Feb 1997 (-1.16%), 10 Apr 1997 (1.1%), 28 Apr 1997 (0.54%)
1996226 Mar 1996 (-3.23%), 23 May 1996 (0.26%)

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
nilnil-1171509.9832191359.385318.213576.39-2271.99-6451.612.343.420.0892234.69
atrnil37.421215733392427.2738031.256639.15-9196.17-20608.544.141.550.0343684.02
atrnil25.3298437.6234132138.2422606.3537759.43-9306.9-20608.542.431.50.0362895.22
atrtrail34.4723404.2740132732.514923.4131489.37-6318.52-17799.232.361.140.0099585.11
atrtrail24.0321450.074014263513249.1828889.42-6309.17-17799.232.11.130.01536.25
50trail31.83-18150.3752114121.159100.6611889.04-2884.33-3935.593.160.85-0.014-349.05
atrtrail-14.83-33147.464012283011685.4334085.67-6191.88-17799.231.890.81-0.017-828.69
50nil31.98-25314.77501040209899.9611889.04-3107.86-3939.753.190.8-0.02-506.3
50trail21.63-25353.6652143826.926288.047926.03-2983.85-3935.592.110.78-0.024-487.57
50nil21.65-31861.1152143826.926288.047926.03-3155.1-3939.751.990.73-0.029-612.71
50trail-12.42-40131.5152104219.237936.8819594.05-2845.25-3935.592.790.66-0.031-771.76

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 3.42. Strategy is very good and impressively bearish. Percentage of profitable trades is 59.38%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 1.12%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.089, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
Performance of strategy chart over time is same as above.

View performance of other stocks for this trading system.

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