Study: Sell ZEEL when there is Bearish Crossover in MACD

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Sell ZEEL when there is Bearish Crossover in MACD" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: sell ZEEL at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. buy after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
187167.571991049552.264875.118966.02-4419.39-21300.061.11.210.013438.03
280047.651991079253.776436.0934173.89-6615.37-23668.690.971.130.009402.25
312642.511999910049.757960.0730704.95-7754.04-25807.771.031.020.001263.53
4-2434141999210746.238155.844247.57-9287.36-53056.380.880.76-0.019-1223.18
5-1226511999710248.749718.6149385.47-10444.66-1104080.930.88-0.008-616.34
6-82857.581999210746.2311854.6851591.45-10967.18-1025511.080.93-0.0049-416.37
7-35718.491999910049.7512554.2949310.99-12785.93-1188780.980.97-0.0019-179.49
8-79334.061999610348.2413683.3353929.24-13523.63-1112241.010.94-0.004-398.66
9-2445761999710248.7413189.551429.69-14940.76-1005100.880.84-0.012-1229.03
10-1332011991039651.7613393.0663122.73-15757.14-1010200.850.91-0.0063-669.35

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 1 trading days. Profit factor is 1.21. Profit factor is showing that this strategy doesn't give any edge over rendomness and it is only as good as tossing a coin and doing the trade. Percentage of profitable trades is 52.26%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 0.22%, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.013, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Maximum losing trade is greater than maximum winning trade which is not good and there can be a huge drawdown before profitability.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
nilnil-1187167.571991049552.264875.118966.02-4419.39-21300.061.11.210.013438.03
atrtrail34.985628.592328614637.0712887.6647758.81-7552.81-1702611.711.010.000324.26
atrtrail24.431229.312348714737.1812804.331839.2-7569.69-1702611.6916.8e-055.25
atrnil39.51-1055342125615626.4227917.3378966-10698.11-2303842.610.94-0.0042-497.8
atrtrail-15.44-89020.072328614637.0711787.186818.7-7552.81-1702611.560.92-0.0047-383.71
atrnil26.52-1379412247814634.8218594.9352644-10879.08-2303841.710.91-0.0059-615.81

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 1.21. Profit factor is showing that this strategy doesn't give any edge over rendomness and it is only as good as tossing a coin and doing the trade. Percentage of profitable trades is 52.26%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 0.22%, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.013, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Maximum losing trade is greater than maximum winning trade which is not good and there can be a huge drawdown before profitability.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
ZEEL Performance, X=1, Profit Factor:1.21

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019612 Mar 2019 (3.19%), 06 May 2019 (4.8%), 09 Jul 2019 (-0.3%), 01 Aug 2019 (1.54%), 22 Aug 2019 (-6.75%), 12 Sep 2019 (-1.18%)
2018801 Jan 2018 (0.18%), 25 Jan 2018 (-2.19%), 12 Apr 2018 (-0.82%), 10 May 2018 (-0.75%), 28 Jun 2018 (-0.92%), 16 Aug 2018 (-0.61%), 25 Oct 2018 (2.49%), 18 Dec 2018 (-0.53%)
2017922 Feb 2017 (-0.46%), 22 Mar 2017 (-0.54%), 13 Apr 2017 (0.07%), 18 May 2017 (0.69%), 13 Jun 2017 (-0.86%), 04 Aug 2017 (0.22%), 26 Sep 2017 (0.17%), 17 Nov 2017 (0.52%), 08 Dec 2017 (-0.89%)
2016907 Jan 2016 (0.89%), 09 Feb 2016 (2.59%), 28 Mar 2016 (1.48%), 05 May 2016 (-0.66%), 31 May 2016 (-1.45%), 08 Jul 2016 (-0.3%), 17 Aug 2016 (-0.64%), 12 Sep 2016 (-0.5%), 14 Oct 2016 (4.89%)
2015802 Feb 2015 (-0.36%), 27 Mar 2015 (-1.44%), 17 Apr 2015 (2.6%), 09 Jul 2015 (-2.31%), 12 Aug 2015 (0.2%), 14 Oct 2015 (-8.32%), 29 Oct 2015 (1.7%), 09 Dec 2015 (-1.58%)
2014815 Jan 2014 (0.96%), 27 Mar 2014 (-0.07%), 28 May 2014 (1.41%), 13 Jun 2014 (0.58%), 09 Jul 2014 (0.16%), 24 Jul 2014 (3.49%), 28 Aug 2014 (-3.95%), 21 Nov 2014 (-2.73%)
20131007 Jan 2013 (-0.34%), 11 Feb 2013 (0.41%), 13 Mar 2013 (-2.82%), 08 Apr 2013 (-1.77%), 21 May 2013 (1.39%), 16 Jul 2013 (-0.77%), 01 Aug 2013 (-1.74%), 20 Aug 2013 (1.42%), 08 Nov 2013 (-6.06%), 24 Dec 2013 (-0.77%)
2012922 Feb 2012 (0.68%), 15 Mar 2012 (6.13%), 11 Apr 2012 (0.6%), 10 May 2012 (0.53%), 10 Jul 2012 (-0.95%), 09 Aug 2012 (-2.13%), 11 Oct 2012 (-1.31%), 12 Nov 2012 (-1.85%), 13 Dec 2012 (-0.44%)
20111006 Jan 2011 (1.67%), 17 Mar 2011 (0.88%), 18 Apr 2011 (-7.67%), 06 May 2011 (0.08%), 13 Jun 2011 (-0.29%), 01 Jul 2011 (0.94%), 04 Aug 2011 (-0.94%), 11 Oct 2011 (-1.12%), 15 Nov 2011 (-0.4%), 13 Dec 2011 (0.53%)
20101025 Jan 2010 (1.33%), 19 Mar 2010 (1.3%), 30 Apr 2010 (1.83%), 28 Jun 2010 (0.31%), 23 Jul 2010 (-0.39%), 16 Aug 2010 (-0.49%), 17 Sep 2010 (-1.48%), 07 Oct 2010 (-0.0%), 16 Nov 2010 (-3.16%), 20 Dec 2010 (1.55%)
2009902 Mar 2009 (1.65%), 24 Apr 2009 (3.32%), 02 Jun 2009 (-10.65%), 28 Jul 2009 (0.57%), 11 Aug 2009 (-0.64%), 10 Sep 2009 (0.36%), 20 Oct 2009 (1.44%), 27 Nov 2009 (1.93%), 31 Dec 2009 (1.79%)
2008808 Jan 2008 (0.72%), 08 Feb 2008 (-2.42%), 18 Mar 2008 (-0.72%), 09 Apr 2008 (0.13%), 02 Jun 2008 (-1.24%), 25 Jun 2008 (-0.52%), 15 Sep 2008 (1.72%), 14 Nov 2008 (3.22%)
2007812 Feb 2007 (-3.72%), 09 May 2007 (3.0%), 01 Jun 2007 (0.94%), 28 Jun 2007 (-3.57%), 30 Jul 2007 (-0.64%), 17 Oct 2007 (6.65%), 31 Oct 2007 (3.75%), 21 Nov 2007 (-1.47%)
2006505 Apr 2006 (-1.42%), 12 May 2006 (0.35%), 21 Jul 2006 (0.79%), 11 Sep 2006 (-6.3%), 06 Dec 2006 (-2.33%)
2005725 Feb 2005 (1.42%), 14 Mar 2005 (2.24%), 15 Apr 2005 (1.85%), 16 Jun 2005 (0.35%), 22 Jul 2005 (-8.56%), 22 Sep 2005 (-6.19%), 23 Dec 2005 (-2.88%)
2004814 Jan 2004 (-1.94%), 19 Feb 2004 (2.89%), 29 Apr 2004 (6.25%), 14 Jun 2004 (-1.99%), 06 Aug 2004 (2.3%), 10 Sep 2004 (3.88%), 30 Nov 2004 (1.45%), 29 Dec 2004 (0.61%)
2003810 Jan 2003 (1.51%), 04 Mar 2003 (3.99%), 27 Mar 2003 (1.9%), 19 May 2003 (-2.96%), 18 Jun 2003 (-0.86%), 04 Aug 2003 (0.57%), 10 Sep 2003 (4.05%), 27 Oct 2003 (0.32%)
20021024 Jan 2002 (-0.28%), 28 Feb 2002 (-9.97%), 22 Mar 2002 (0.53%), 16 Apr 2002 (-0.6%), 30 Apr 2002 (0.75%), 24 Jun 2002 (-0.31%), 15 Jul 2002 (-4.06%), 16 Sep 2002 (2.26%), 05 Dec 2002 (-7.59%), 19 Dec 2002 (-0.46%)
2001607 Feb 2001 (-0.34%), 12 Apr 2001 (8.96%), 05 Jun 2001 (-0.24%), 04 Jul 2001 (-0.0%), 07 Sep 2001 (1.14%), 13 Dec 2001 (7.3%)
2000701 Mar 2000 (-8.0%), 19 Apr 2000 (7.92%), 12 May 2000 (-8.48%), 27 Jun 2000 (1.49%), 25 Jul 2000 (5.57%), 15 Sep 2000 (9.48%), 21 Dec 2000 (5.49%)
1999818 Jan 1999 (8.0%), 24 Mar 1999 (-0.7%), 26 May 1999 (7.99%), 09 Aug 1999 (-7.6%), 03 Sep 1999 (-1.61%), 04 Oct 1999 (-1.36%), 26 Oct 1999 (1.11%), 01 Dec 1999 (-1.06%)
1998728 Jan 1998 (1.43%), 12 Mar 1998 (-0.37%), 12 May 1998 (7.28%), 02 Jun 1998 (1.96%), 12 Aug 1998 (7.26%), 30 Sep 1998 (7.84%), 06 Nov 1998 (-0.81%)
19971021 Jan 1997 (-2.02%), 24 Feb 1997 (0.25%), 18 Mar 1997 (-2.22%), 28 May 1997 (1.5%), 21 Jul 1997 (0.88%), 11 Aug 1997 (2.82%), 17 Sep 1997 (1.1%), 04 Nov 1997 (-1.06%), 05 Dec 1997 (1.73%), 29 Dec 1997 (4.18%)
1996810 Jan 1996 (8.32%), 25 Jan 1996 (-0.31%), 01 Mar 1996 (5.88%), 25 Apr 1996 (5.37%), 21 May 1996 (-3.76%), 21 Jun 1996 (2.51%), 25 Sep 1996 (0.12%), 25 Oct 1996 (0.8%)
1995316 May 1995 (-3.65%), 29 Jun 1995 (-2.58%), 26 Oct 1995 (-1.43%)



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